Inverse Algorithm for Tsunami Forecasts
Inverse Algorithm for Tsunami Forecasts
复制标题
海啸预报的逆算法
DOI：
--
复制
发表时间：
2003
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
C. Mccreery
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Yong Wei;K. Cheung;G. Curtis;C. Mccreery
本文介绍了一种方法来评估的严重程度，海啸的基础上进行的实时水位数据源附近。将利用水位资料中的海啸信号反演震源参数的方法推广到远离震源的海啸波形预测。本研究的重点是阿拉斯加-阿留申源区及其对夏威夷的潜在威胁。该算法将震源区划分为41个子断层的基础上，以前的分析，从1938年到1986年的主要海啸地震。对于亚断层的单位滑动，线性长波模型生成了一个数据库的合成mareogram在13个水位站附近的源和在太平洋的6个战略位置。使用海洋记录图对记录的海啸信号进行回归，提供了震源处的滑动分布和夏威夷附近的预期波形。一个刀切的reserve计划提供的预测的置信区间界限。该算法沿着与数据库进行了测试和验证，使用数值模拟和实际水位数据的过去的海啸事件。
This paper describes a methodology to assess the severity of a tsunami in progress based on real-time water-level data near the source. The inverse method, which uses tsunami signals in water-level data to infer seismic source parameters, is extended to predict the tsunami waveforms away from the source. This study focuses on the Alaska-Aleutian source region and its potential threat to Hawaii. The algorithm divides the source region into 41 subfaults based on previous analyses of major tsunamigenic earthquakes from 1938 to 1986. For unit slip of the subfaults, a linear long-wave model generates a database of synthetic mareograms at 13 water-level stations near the source and at six strategic locations in the Pacific. Regression of recorded tsunami signals using the mareograms provides the slip distribution at the source and the expected waveforms near Hawaii. A jackknife resampling scheme provides the confidence interval bounds of the predictions. The algorithm along with the database is tested and verified using numerically simulated and actual water-level data of past tsunami events.