Considering the Role of Adaptive Evolution in Models of the Ocean and Climate System
Considering the Role of Adaptive Evolution in Models of the Ocean and Climate System
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DOI：
10.1029/2018ms001452
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发表时间：
2019-08
影响因子：
6.8
通讯作者：
B. Ward;Sinéad Collins;S. Dutkiewicz;Samantha Gibbs;Paul Bown;A. Ridgwell;B. Sauterey;Jamie D. Wilson;A. Oschlies
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文献类型：
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作者：
B. Ward;Sinéad Collins;S. Dutkiewicz;Samantha Gibbs;Paul Bown;A. Ridgwell;B. Sauterey;Jamie D. Wilson;A. Oschlies
数值模型在模拟当今海洋的全球碳和营养循环以及观测到的叶绿素和表层浮游生物生物量的空间和时间模式方面非常成功。随着这一成功，人们对预测持续人为变暖的世纪规模反应有了一定的信心。人们也越来越有兴趣使用这些模型来了解浮游生物生态系统在过去海洋中的作用。然而，今天的海洋环境是数十亿年持续进化的产物，这一过程至今仍在继续。在本文中，我们解决的问题，是否物种不变性的假设是足够的，如果不是，在什么情况下，目前的模型预测可能会打破。要做到这一点，我们首先确定关键的时间尺度和模型所问的问题。然后，我们回顾了目前的海洋生态系统模型是如何工作的，以及有哪些替代方法可以用来解释进化。我们认为，气候变化的时间尺度与进化的时间尺度重叠，占进化可能会导致非常不同的预测结果的生态系统响应的时间尺度和相关的全球地球化学循环。过去的灭绝事件尤其如此，但未来也可能如此，这取决于人为破坏的最终程度。建立新的包含进化的数值模型的学科本身也是非常有益的，因为它迫使我们质疑我们对适应性进化的了解，而不管它在任何特定事件或环境变化中的定量作用。
Numerical models have been highly successful in simulating global carbon and nutrient cycles in today's ocean, together with observed spatial and temporal patterns of chlorophyll and plankton biomass at the surface. With this success has come some confidence in projecting the century‐scale response to continuing anthropogenic warming. There is also increasing interest in using such models to understand the role of plankton ecosystems in past oceans. However, today's marine environment is the product of billions of years of continual evolution—a process that continues today. In this paper, we address the questions of whether an assumption of species invariance is sufficient, and if not, under what circumstances current model projections might break down. To do this, we first identify the key timescales and questions asked of models. We then review how current marine ecosystem models work and what alternative approaches are available to account for evolution. We argue that for timescales of climate change overlapping with evolutionary timescales, accounting for evolution may to lead to very different projected outcomes regarding the timescales of ecosystem response and associated global biogeochemical cycling. This is particularly the case for past extinction events but may also be true in the future, depending on the eventual degree of anthropogenic disruption. The discipline of building new numerical models that incorporate evolution is also hugely beneficial in itself, as it forces us to question what we know about adaptive evolution, irrespective of its quantitative role in any specific event or environmental changes.