The gathering firestorm in southern Amazonia
The gathering firestorm in southern Amazonia
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DOI：
10.1126/sciadv.aay1632
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发表时间：
2020-01-01
期刊：
影响因子：
13.6
通讯作者：
Coe, M. T.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Brando, P. M.;Soares-Filho, B.;Coe, M. T.
极端天气事件和土地利用加剧了野火，有可能将亚马逊从一个净碳汇变成一个净碳源。在这里，我们开发和应用一个耦合的生态系统-火灾模型来量化温室气体驱动的干燥和变暖将如何影响巴西亚马逊南部的野火和相关的二氧化碳排放。区域气候预测表明，在低排放和高排放情景下，亚马逊火灾制度都将加剧。我们的结果表明，预计的气候变化将使野火烧毁的面积增加一倍，到2050年，该地区高达16%的森林将受到影响。尽管这些火灾可能会排放相当于大气17.0 pg的二氧化碳，但避免新的砍伐森林可以将总的火灾净排放量减少一半，并有助于防止火灾蔓延到保护区和土著土地。积极努力消除火源和扑灭野火对保护亚马逊南部森林至关重要。
Wildfires, exacerbated by extreme weather events and land use, threaten to change the Amazon from a net carbon sink to a net carbon source. Here, we develop and apply a coupled ecosystem-fire model to quantify how greenhouse gas-driven drying and warming would affect wildfires and associated CO2 emissions in the southern Brazilian Amazon. Regional climate projections suggest that Amazon fire regimes will intensify under both low- and high-emission scenarios. Our results indicate that projected climatic changes will double the area burned by wildfires, affecting up to 16% of the region's forests by 2050. Although these fires could emit as much as 17.0 Pg of CO2 equivalent to the atmosphere, avoiding new deforestation could cut total net fire emissions in half and help prevent fires from escaping into protected areas and indigenous lands. Aggressive efforts to eliminate ignition sources and suppress wildfires will be critical to conserve southern Amazon forests.