Tree-ring based December-February precipitation reconstruction in the southern Zagros Mountains, Iran
Tree-ring based December-February precipitation reconstruction in the southern Zagros Mountains, Iran
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DOI：
10.1016/j.dendro.2018.03.002
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发表时间：
2018-06-01
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Mohammad, Hosein
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Arsalani, Mohsen;Pourtahamsi, Kambiz;Mohammad, Hosein
我们使用标准的树木年代学方法，开发了伊朗扎格罗斯山脉南部1796-2015年期间的第一个栎树年轮宽度年代学。气候-生长关系表明，12月和2月降水对植物生长有较强的正向影响（r = 0.66; P < 0.01），而生长季节的平均温度对植物生长有较强的负向影响。与Palmer干旱严重指数（PDSI）和网格化降水数据的空间相关性表明，年代学包含区域气候信号，树木生长变化可能代表中东大面积的降水波动。线性回归模型对实际12月至2月降水方差的贡献率为44%。重建降水结果显示，1850-2015年期间，扎格罗斯地区南部的极端干旱年出现在1870-71年、1898年、1960年和1963-64年，极端潮湿年出现在1851年、1885年、1916年和1921年。最长的干旱期发生在1958 ~ 1973年，历时16年。2年连续干湿事件发生频率最高，平均干湿事件长度分别为2.9年和3.6年。长期重建降水与北大西洋涛动（NAO）、南方涛动指数（SOI）和太平洋年代际涛动（PDO）的相关性证实了遥相关模式对南扎格罗斯地区降水的影响。
We developed the first tree-ring width chronology from Quercus brantii Lindel for the period 1796-2015 in the southern Zagros Mountains, Iran, using standard dendrochronological procedures. Climate-growth relationships revealed that DecemberoFebruary precipitation has strong positive effects (r = 0.66; P < 0.01) on the species' growth while mean temperature during the growing season has strong negative effects. Spatial correlations with Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and gridded precipitation data revealed that the chronology contains regional climate signals and tree growth variations may represent precipitation fluctuations over large areas of the Middle East. The linear regression model accounts for 44% of the actual DecemberoFebruary precipitation variance. The reconstructed precipitation revealed that over the period 1850-2015 extreme dry years occurred in 1870-71, 1898, 1960 and 1963-64, and extreme wet years occurred in 1851, 1885, 1916 and 1921 in the southern Zagros region. The longest dry period lasted 16 years and occurred from 1958 to 1973. Two-year consecutive wet and dry events showed the highest frequencies and the average length of dry and wet events were 2.9 and 3.6 years over the reconstructed period. Correlations between the long-term reconstructed precipitation and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) confirmed the effects of teleconnection patterns on precipitation in the southern Zagros region.