Estimation of offending and co-offending using available data with model support
Estimation of offending and co-offending using available data with model support
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DOI：
10.1080/00222500601011423
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发表时间：
2007-01-01
影响因子：
1
通讯作者：
Carrington, Peter J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Frank, Ove;Carrington, Peter J.
警方数据少报了犯罪数量和罪犯数量、参与个别犯罪事件的罪犯数量（事件规模）以及个别罪犯参与的事件数量（犯罪活动）。犯罪参与事件是所有这些现象的基础和统一的概念，因此事件和犯罪者的数量、事件规模分布和犯罪活动分布都可以从犯罪参与矩阵中得出。提出了两个相关的概率模型，可以根据警方报告的犯罪数据和向警方报告犯罪的数据来估计事件和罪犯的数量、事件规模分布、罪犯活动分布和共犯分布。这些模型是利用加拿大统一犯罪报告调查和 1995 年至 2001 年期间全国受害调查的数据进行估计的。
Police data under-report the numbers of crimes and of offenders, the numbers of offenders participating in individual criminal incidents (incident sizes) and the numbers of incidents in which individual offenders participate (offender activity). Criminal participation in incidents is a concept that underlies and unifies all of these phenomena, so that the numbers of incidents and of offenders, and incident size distributions and offender activity distributions, can all be derived from the criminal participation matrix. Two related probability models are presented that permit the estimation of numbers of incidents and offenders, incident size distributions, offender activity distributions, and co-offending distributions, from police-reported crime data, and data on the reporting of crime to police. The models are estimated, using data from the Canadian Uniform Crime Reporting Survey and national victimization surveys for the period 1995 - 2001.