Climate change will affect global water availability through compounding changes in seasonal precipitation and evaporation
Climate change will affect global water availability through compounding changes in seasonal precipitation and evaporation
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DOI：
10.1038/s41467-020-16757-w
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发表时间：
2020-06-23
影响因子：
16.6
通讯作者：
Mann, Michael E.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Konapala, Goutam;Mishra, Ashok K.;Mann, Michael E.
季节和年平均降水量和蒸发量都影响着影响社会和生态系统的水供应模式。现有的全球气候研究很少从非参数统计的角度考虑这种模式。在这里，我们采用非参数分析框架，分析季节性水文气候制度，全球陆地区域分为九个制度，使用世纪后期的降水手段和季节性。这些制度被用来评估水的可用性，由于伴随的平均和季节性降水和蒸发量的变化，使用CMIP 5模式未来气候预测的影响。在9个区域中，4个区域的降水量变化增加，5个区域的蒸发量变化减少，同时平均降水量和蒸发量增加。在已经高度可变的降水制度中，预测的季节性降水变化增加，导致“季节性可变制度变得更加可变”的格局。降水季节性低的制度，相反，经验增加湿季降水。充足的水供应是人类和生态系统可持续性的关键。在这里，作者表明，季节性变化的制度变得更加多变，季节性和气候变量的幅度的综合影响将影响未来的水资源可用性。
Both seasonal and annual mean precipitation and evaporation influence patterns of water availability impacting society and ecosystems. Existing global climate studies rarely consider such patterns from non-parametric statistical standpoint. Here, we employ a non-parametric analysis framework to analyze seasonal hydroclimatic regimes by classifying global land regions into nine regimes using late 20th century precipitation means and seasonality. These regimes are used to assess implications for water availability due to concomitant changes in mean and seasonal precipitation and evaporation changes using CMIP5 model future climate projections. Out of 9 regimes, 4 show increased precipitation variation, while 5 show decreased evaporation variation coupled with increasing mean precipitation and evaporation. Increases in projected seasonal precipitation variation in already highly variable precipitation regimes gives rise to a pattern of "seasonally variable regimes becoming more variable". Regimes with low seasonality in precipitation, instead, experience increased wet season precipitation. Adequate water availability is key to human and ecosystem sustainability. Here, the authors show that seasonally variable regimes become more variable, and the combined influence of seasonality and magnitude of climate variables will affect future water availability.