Long-term research avoids spurious and misleading trends in sustainability attributes of no-till
Long-term research avoids spurious and misleading trends in sustainability attributes of no-till
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DOI：
10.1111/gcb.15080
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发表时间：
2020-06-01
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Haddad, Nick M.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Cusser, Sarah;Bahlai, Christie;Haddad, Nick M.
基于短期研究的农业管理建议可能产生与长期现实不符的结果。在这里，我们测试长期的环境可持续性和连续免耕农业的收益率，土壤水分供应和N2O通量。使用移动窗口的方法，我们调查的发展和稳定性的几个属性的连续免耕相比，传统的耕作农业超过29年的时间在美国上中西部的一个网站。需要十多年的时间来检测免耕的持续影响。作物产量和土壤水分供应都需要15年或更长时间才能形成与29年趋势一致的模式。在此期间，N2O通量只有边际趋势。相对盈利能力分析表明，在最初实施后，86%的10年至29年期间恢复了免耕实施的初始费用，随着寿命的延长，相对利润增加的可能性更高。重要的是，在超过20%的研究期间，出现了具有统计意义但具有误导性的短期趋势。结果强调了十年期和更长时间的研究的重要性，揭示了免耕农业的一致动态和紧急结果，从长远来看是有益的。
Agricultural management recommendations based on short-term studies can produce findings inconsistent with long-term reality. Here, we test the long-term environmental sustainability and profitability of continuous no-till agriculture on yield, soil water availability, and N2O fluxes. Using a moving window approach, we investigate the development and stability of several attributes of continuous no-till as compared to conventional till agriculture over a 29-year period at a site in the upper Midwest, US. Over a decade is needed to detect the consistent effects of no-till. Both crop yield and soil water availability required 15 years or longer to generate patterns consistent with 29-year trends. Only marginal trends for N2O fluxes appeared in this period. Relative profitability analysis suggests that after initial implementation, 86% of periods between 10 and 29 years recuperated the initial expense of no-till implementation, with the probability of higher relative profit increasing with longevity. Importantly, statistically significant but misleading short-term trends appeared in more than 20% of the periods examined. Results underscore the importance of decadal and longer studies for revealing consistent dynamics and emergent outcomes of no-till agriculture, shown to be beneficial in the long term.