Detection of Greenhouse Gas and Aerosol Influences on Changes in Temperature Extremes
Detection of Greenhouse Gas and Aerosol Influences on Changes in Temperature Extremes
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DOI：
10.2151/sola.2006-039
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发表时间：
2006
期刊：
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
H. Shiogama;N. Christidis;J. Caesar;T. Yokohata;T. Nozawa;S. Emori
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
H. Shiogama;N. Christidis;J. Caesar;T. Yokohata;T. Nozawa;S. Emori
通过比较新的日最高/最低温度网格观测数据集（HadGHCND）和MIROC3.2模拟，对极端温度的探测/归因进行了分析。结果表明，在1950 - 1999年的年度最暖夜和最冷白天和夜晚均可检测到显著的人为变暖，而在最暖日未检测到人为影响。这些发现与先前研究HadCM3模拟的研究一致。人类的影响还体现在霜冻日数的减少上，但不体现在夏季日数的增加上。此外，有人认为，温室气体浓度上升造成的变暖趋势有一半被其他因素（主要是气溶胶降温）抵消了。预计气溶胶排放的迅速下降加上温室气体浓度的上升将在未来引起更大的极端温度变化。
Detection/attribution analyses of temperature extremes were carried out by comparing a new gridded observational dataset of daily maximum/minimum temperatures (HadGHCND) and the simulation of MIROC3.2. It was shown that significant anthropogenic warming is detectable in the annual warmest night, and the coldest day and night from 1950 to 1999, while human influence was not detected in the warmest day. These findings are in agreement with a previous study that examined the simulation of HadCM3. Human influence is also identified in the decrease in the number of frost days, but not with the increase in the number of summer days. Furthermore, it was suggested that half of the warming trend due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations is canceled out by other factors, predominantly aerosol cooling. It is expected that a rapid decline of aerosol emissions coupled with rising greenhouse gas concentrations would induce larger changes in temperature extremes in the future.