The past, present, and future of cancer incidence in the United States: 1975 through 2020.
The past, present, and future of cancer incidence in the United States: 1975 through 2020.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1002/cncr.29258
复制
发表时间：
2015-06-01
期刊：
影响因子：
6.2
通讯作者：
Leadbetter S
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Weir HK;Thompson TD;Soman A;Møller B;Leadbetter S
年龄标准化的癌症发病率继续下降，而每年诊断的病例数却在增加。预测癌症发病率有助于预测未来的资源需求，评估初级预防策略，并为研究提供信息。监测、流行病学和最终结果数据用于估计由于人口风险、年龄和规模变化而导致的癌症（所有部位）数量。作者预测到2020年全国年龄标准化发病率和病例（包括前23种癌症）。自1975年以来，白色个体中的事件病例增加，主要是由于白色人口老龄化造成的，而黑人个体中的事件病例增加，主要是由于黑人人口增加造成的。预计2010年至2020年期间，黑人男性的总体发病率（风险代表）将略有下降，其他群体的发病率将保持稳定。到2020年，作者预测男性每年的癌症病例（所有种族，所有地点）将增加24.1%（-3.2%风险和27.3%年龄/增长）至> 100万例，女性将增加20.6%（1.2%风险和19.4%年龄/增长）至> 90万例。预计增加最多的是黑色素瘤（白色个体）;男性的前列腺癌、肾癌、肝癌和膀胱癌;女性的肺癌、乳腺癌、子宫癌和甲状腺癌。总体而言，作者预测大多数人群的癌症发病率/风险将保持稳定;然而，他们预计癌症病例数量将增加> 20%。需要更加重视初级预防和早期发现，以应对人口老龄化和不断增长对癌症负担的影响。
The overall age-standardized cancer incidence rate continues to decline whereas the number of cases diagnosed each year increases. Predicting cancer incidence can help to anticipate future resource needs, evaluate primary prevention strategies, and inform research. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data were used to estimate the number of cancers (all sites) resulting from changes in population risk, age, and size. The authors projected to 2020 nationwide age-standardized incidence rates and cases (including the top 23 cancers). Since 1975, incident cases increased among white individuals, primarily caused by an aging white population, and among black individuals, primarily caused by an increasing black population. Between 2010 and 2020, it is expected that overall incidence rates (proxy for risk) will decrease slightly among black men and stabilize in other groups. By 2020, the authors predict annual cancer cases (all races, all sites) to increase among men by 24.1% (−3.2% risk and 27.3% age/growth) to >1 million cases, and by 20.6% among women (1.2% risk and 19.4% age/growth) to >900,000 cases. The largest increases are expected for melanoma (white individuals); cancers of the prostate, kidney, liver, and urinary bladder in males; and the lung, breast, uterus, and thyroid in females. Overall, the authors predict cancer incidence rates/risk to stabilize for the majority of the population; however, they expect the number of cancer cases to increase by >20%. A greater emphasis on primary prevention and early detection is needed to counter the effect of an aging and growing population on the burden of cancer.