A Dual-Process Discrete-Time Survival Analysis Model: Application to the Gateway Drug Hypothesis.
A Dual-Process Discrete-Time Survival Analysis Model: Application to the Gateway Drug Hypothesis.
复制标题
双过程离散时间生存分析模型：在网关药物假设中的应用。
DOI：
10.1080/00273171.2010.519277
复制
发表时间：
2010
影响因子：
3.8
通讯作者：
Northrup,ThomasF
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Malone,PatrickS;Lamis,DorianA;Masyn,KatherineE;Northrup,ThomasF
网关药物模型是一个流行的概念化的进展，大多数物质使用者被假设遵循，因为他们尝试不同的法律的和非法药物。大多数形式的网关假设是，“软”药物导致“硬”，非法药物。然而，网关假说显然很难直接检验，也就是说，在一个单一的模型中检验合法药物使用可能导致非法药物使用或相反的相互竞争的假说。本文提出了一种新的统计技术，双进程离散时间生存分析，使这种比较。该方法使用混合建模软件来估计2个并发的时间到事件过程及其相互影响。使用这种方法，支持网关假设在全国青年纵向调查，1997年，是弱的。然而，这篇文章的目的并不是为了对因果方向进行强有力的检验，而更多的是作为一种技术论证，并受到某些技术限制。这些限制和未来的发展方向进行了讨论。
The gateway drug model is a popular conceptualization of a progression most substance users are hypothesized to follow as they try different legal and illegal drugs. Most forms of the gateway hypothesis are that “softer” drugs lead to “harder,” illicit drugs. However, the gateway hypothesis has been notably difficult to directly test—that is, to test as competing hypotheses in a single model that licit drug use might lead to illicit drug useorthe reverse. This article presents a novel statistical technique, dual-process discrete-time survival analysis, which enables this comparison. This method uses mixture-modeling software to estimate 2 concurrent time-to-event processes and their effects on each other. Using this method, support for the gateway hypothesis in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1997, was weak. However, this article was not designed as a strong test of causal direction but more as a technical demonstration and suffered from certain technological limitations. Both these limitations and future directions are discussed.