European extra-tropical storm damage risk from a multi-model ensemble of dynamically-downscaled global climate models
European extra-tropical storm damage risk from a multi-model ensemble of dynamically-downscaled global climate models
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动态缩小规模的全球气候模型的多模型集合对欧洲温带风暴造成的损害风险
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发表时间：
2011
期刊：
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通讯作者：
M. Haylock
中科院分区：
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作者：
M. Haylock
抽象的。欧洲风暴保险损失回报水平的不确定性是通过由 ERA40 重新分析或四个大气-海洋耦合全球气候模型之一驱动的 22 个 25 公里区域气候模型运行得出的风暴来量化的。使用基于每日最大 10 m 风速的模型相关风暴严重程度指数来识别风暴。每个模型的风速均使用 1961 年至 2000 年期间严重指数最高的 70 场风暴，采用两阶段校准方法，校准为一组 7 公里的历史风暴风场。首先，使用 7 公里表面粗糙度长度和地形，并采用经验阵风参数化，将 25 公里日最大风速缩小到 7 公里历史模型网格。其次，将降尺度的阵风统计缩放到历史风暴，以匹配阵风速度的地理相关累积分布函数。经过校准的风场通过可操作的巨灾再保险风险模型运行，以确定欧洲人口密度衍生的财产投资组合的损失回报水平。风险模型得出的 50 年损失回报水平为投资组合总保险价值的 0.025% 至 0.056%。
Abstract. Uncertainty in the return levels of insured loss from European wind storms was quantified using storms derived from twenty-two 25 km regional climate model runs driven by either the ERA40 reanalyses or one of four coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models. Storms were identified using a model-dependent storm severity index based on daily maximum 10 m wind speed. The wind speed from each model was calibrated to a set of 7 km historical storm wind fields using the 70 storms with the highest severity index in the period 1961–2000, employing a two stage calibration methodology. First, the 25 km daily maximum wind speed was downscaled to the 7 km historical model grid using the 7 km surface roughness length and orography, also adopting an empirical gust parameterisation. Secondly, downscaled wind gusts were statistically scaled to the historical storms to match the geographically-dependent cumulative distribution function of wind gust speed. The calibrated wind fields were run through an operational catastrophe reinsurance risk model to determine the return level of loss to a European population density-derived property portfolio. The risk model produced a 50-yr return level of loss of between 0.025% and 0.056% of the total insured value of the portfolio.