Time-series analysis of global zinc demand associated with steel
Time-series analysis of global zinc demand associated with steel
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DOI：
10.1016/j.resconrec.2013.10.013
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发表时间：
2014
影响因子：
13.2
通讯作者：
I. Daigo;S. Osako;Y. Adachi;Yasunari Matsuno
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
I. Daigo;S. Osako;Y. Adachi;Yasunari Matsuno
本研究旨在分析全球范围内与钢铁相关的锌的物质流动，以探讨未来锌资源的可持续利用。钢和锌需求之间的关系表现为镀锌钢的锌强度和镀锌钢占钢铁总需求的百分比。根据对钢材的统计，将钢材用锌量划分为最终用途。对未来锌的需求进行了三种锌强度情景的预测。利用库存驱动流量模型对未来钢铁需求进行了预测，其中需求由库存变化决定。在过去镀锌钢存量过渡的基础上，考虑经济增长，对未来镀锌钢存量的增长进行了预测。对截至2050年镀锌钢的累计锌需求量与锌储量进行了比较。通过对锌的动态物质流分析，估计锌的全球平均回收率约为20%。希望回收率能有所提高。即使根据基于技术发展的经验曲线不断降低锌的强度，目前储备的很大一部分将用于镀锌钢。研究表明，降低锌强度的技术发展将对节约锌资源发挥重要作用。
This study aimed to analyze the global-scale substance flow of zinc associated with steel in order to discuss the sustainable use of zinc resources in the future. The relationship between the demand for steel and zinc was characterized in terms of zinc intensity for galvanized steel and the percentage of galvanized steel that accounts for the total steel demand. Zinc consumption for steel was divided into end uses according to the statistics on steel. Zinc demand in the future was forecasted with three scenarios for zinc intensity. Future steel demand was estimated using the stocks-drive-flows model, in which the demand is determined by the change in stock. The growth of in-use stock of galvanized steel in the future was estimated by considering economic growth on the basis of the transition of in-use stock of galvanized steel in the past. The cumulative zinc demand for galvanized steel up to the year 2050 was compared with the zinc reserves. It was found that the global average recovery rate of zinc was estimated at approximately 20% by the dynamic substance flow analysis for zinc. It is hoped that the recovery rate will increase. Even if zinc intensity is continuously reduced according to an experience curve based on technological development, a large portion of the current reserves will be consumed for galvanized steel. It was concluded that technological development in reducing zinc intensity will play a significant role in zinc resource conservation.