Performance of public health surveillance systems during the influenza A(H1N1) pandemic in the Americas: testing a new method based on Benford's Law
Performance of public health surveillance systems during the influenza A(H1N1) pandemic in the Americas: testing a new method based on Benford's Law
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DOI：
10.1017/s095026881100015x
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发表时间：
2011-12-01
影响因子：
4.2
通讯作者：
Moreno-Montoya, J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Idrovo, A. J.;Fernandez-Nino, J. A.;Moreno-Montoya, J.
甲型H1N1流感大流行对所有国家的公共卫生监测系统都是一个挑战。尚未对这些系统在大流行病期间的业绩进行客观评价。本文提出了一种基于Benford定律和死亡率的算法，以评估数据的质量和监测系统的灵敏度。它分析了2009年流行病学第13周至第47周期间泛美卫生组织35个成员国向其报告的确诊病例记录。17个国家没有达到本福德定律，40%的国家的死亡率超过了区域平均水平。结果表明，不同国家的监测系统的表现参差不齐，最常见的问题是诊断覆盖率低。本福特定律被证明是一个有用的工具，用于评估公共卫生监督系统的性能。
The A(H1N1) influenza pandemic has been a challenge for public health surveillance systems in all countries. An objective evaluation has not been conducted, as yet, of the performance of those systems during the pandemic. This paper presents an algorithm based on Benford's Law and the mortality ratio in order to evaluate the quality of the data and the sensitivity of surveillance systems. It analyses records of confirmed cases reported to the Pan American Health Organization by its 35 member countries between epidemiological weeks 13 and 47 in 2009. Seventeen countries did not fulfil Benford's Law, and mortality exceeded the regional average in 40% of the countries. The results suggest uneven performance by surveillance systems in the different countries, with the most frequent problem being low diagnostic coverage. Benford's Law proved to be a useful tool for the evaluation of a public health surveillance system's performance.