Natural disasters and local demographic change in the United States
Natural disasters and local demographic change in the United States
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DOI：
10.1007/s11111-012-0171-7
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发表时间：
2013-03-01
影响因子：
3.3
通讯作者：
Elliott, James R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Schultz, Jessica;Elliott, James R.
关于美国自然灾害对当地人口结构影响的经典研究现在已经有30多年的历史了，这引发了人们的疑问，即随着有记录的环境危害的数量和成本增加，相关模式在其间如何以及在多大程度上发生了变化。这项研究使用最近的人口普查和灾害数据，结合考虑邻近县之间空间相关性的统计方法，在全国范围内审查了县一级的这些问题。结果表明，1990年代期间的累积灾害影响与当地人口和住房单位的变化呈正相关；它们还揭示了当地居民社会经济两极分化加剧的模式。这些研究结果不同于以前的研究，并将最近的案例研究放在更广泛的背景下，表明当前的灾难恢复有助于在环境危险的地方增加更多和更不平等的人口。
Classic studies on local demographic consequences of natural disasters in the United States are now more than 30 years old, raising questions about how and to what extent relevant patterns have changed over intervening years, as the number and cost of recorded environmental hazards have increased. This study examines these questions at the county level for the nation as a whole, using recent census and hazards data in conjunction with statistical methods that account for spatial dependencies among neighboring counties. Results indicate a positive correlation between cumulative disaster impact during the 1990s and changes in local population and housing units; they also reveal patterns of increased socioeconomic polarization among local residents. These findings differ from earlier studies and put recent case studies in broader context, suggesting that current disaster recoveries contribute to the growth of larger and more unequal populations in environmentally hazardous places.