Demographic science aids in understanding the spread and fatality rates of COVID-19
Demographic science aids in understanding the spread and fatality rates of COVID-19
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DOI：
10.1073/pnas.2004911117
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发表时间：
2020-05-05
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Mills, Melinda C.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Dowd, Jennifer Beam;Andriano, Liliana;Mills, Melinda C.
世界各国政府必须迅速动员并做出艰难的政策决定，以减轻 2019 年冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 的流行。由于死亡集中在老年人中，我们强调人口统计学的重要作用，特别是人口年龄结构如何有助于解释各国死亡率的差异以及传播如何展开。我们研究了意大利和韩国迄今为止年龄结构在死亡中的作用，并说明了这种流行病如何在人口规模相似但年龄结构不同的人群中蔓延，表明人口老龄化国家的死亡率负担明显高于人口较年轻的国家。人口特征与当前 COVID-19 特定年龄死亡率之间的这种强有力的相互作用表明，社交距离和其他减缓传播的政策应考虑地方和国家背景的年龄构成以及代际相互作用。我们还呼吁各国提供按年龄和性别分列的病例和死亡数据，以改进对住院和重症监护需求的实时有针对性的预测。
Governments around the world must rapidly mobilize and make difficult policy decisions to mitigate the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Because deaths have been concentrated at older ages, we highlight the important role of demography, particularly, how the age structure of a population may help explain differences in fatality rates across countries and how transmission unfolds. We examine the role of age structure in deaths thus far in Italy and South Korea and illustrate how the pandemic could unfold in populations with similar population sizes but different age structures, showing a dramatically higher burden of mortality in countries with older versus younger populations. This powerful interaction of demography and current age-specific mortality for COVID-19 suggests that social distancing and other policies to slow transmission should consider the age composition of local and national contexts as well as intergenerational interactions. We also call for countries to provide case and fatality data disaggregated by age and sex to improve real-time targeted forecasting of hospitalization and critical care needs.