Future climate change, the agricultural water cycle, and agricultural production in China
Future climate change, the agricultural water cycle, and agricultural production in China
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DOI：
10.1016/s0167-8809(02)00093-2
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发表时间：
2003-04
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
F. Tao;M. Yokozawa;Y. Hayashi;E. Lin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
F. Tao;M. Yokozawa;Y. Hayashi;E. Lin
气候变化将对水文循环产生重大影响，从而对可用水资源、洪水和干旱的可能性以及农业生产力产生重大影响。本研究通过中国农田水平衡计算，评估了气候变化对农业水循环的影响及其对2020年代农业生产的影响。将基线气候和HADCM2大气环流模型（GCM）气候变化情景下潜在蒸散量、实际蒸散量、土壤水分、土壤水分赤字、产量指数和农田地表径流的时空变化绘制在0.5°纬度/经度分辨率的网格上。分析认为，预计华南地区农业需水量将普遍下降，气候变化导致的农田土壤水分亏缺也将减少。但华北地区农业需水量预计将增加，土壤水分亏缺将普遍增加。水资源的变化会对产量指数产生相应的影响。预计西南山区部分坡耕地和南部沿海部分地区生长期耕地地表径流将有所增加。这些变化将对农业生产产生重要影响。特别是华北平原和东北地区的雨养作物将在未来几十年面临与水有关的挑战，因为预计需水量和土壤水分亏缺的增加以及降水量的减少。
Climate change would have a major impact on the hydrological cycle and consequently on available water resources, the potential for flood and drought, and agricultural productivity. In this study, the impacts of climate change on the agricultural water cycle and their implications for agricultural production in the 2020s were assessed by water-balance calculations for Chinese croplands. Temporal and spatial changes in potential evapotranspiration, actual evapotranspiration, soil-moisture, soil-moisture deficit, yield index, and cropland surface runoff under the baseline climate and a HADCM2 general circulation model (GCM) climate-change scenario were mapped on a grid of 0.5° latitude/longitude resolution. According to the analysis, agricultural water demand in south China is projected to decrease generally, and the cropland soil-moisture deficit would decrease due to climate change. However, in north China, agricultural water demand is expected to increase, and the soil-moisture deficit would increase generally. The changes in the water resources would have consequent impacts on the yield index. Cropland surface runoff during the growing period is expected to increase on some sloping croplands in the southwest mountain areas and in some areas along the south coast. These changes would have important implications for agricultural production. Particularly the rain-fed crops in the north China plain and northeast China would face water-related challenges in coming decades due to the expected increases in water demands and soil-moisture deficit, and decreases in precipitation.