A Maximum Rupture Model for the Southern San Andreas and San Jacinto Faults, California, Derived From Paleoseismic Earthquake Ages: Observations and Limitations
A Maximum Rupture Model for the Southern San Andreas and San Jacinto Faults, California, Derived From Paleoseismic Earthquake Ages: Observations and Limitations
复制标题
源自古地震时代的加利福尼亚州南圣安德烈亚斯断层和圣哈辛托断层的最大破裂模型：观测和限制
DOI：
10.1029/2020gl088532
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发表时间：
2020
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
D. Yule
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
K. Scharer;D. Yule
古地震破裂历史提供了地震矩释放的时空模型，需要测试数值模型和延长仪器目录。我们开发了一个模型，在过去的1,500年中，美国加州的圣安德烈亚斯和圣哈辛托断层南部的古地震数据所允许的最小和最大震级的地震。最大的几何复杂性似乎是调节系统：只有两个断裂打破了圣戈尔戈尼奥山口地区，其次是断裂的插曲，可以桥接北方圣哈辛托断层和圣安德烈亚斯断层。当针对每个事件的滑动独立数据进行测试时，该模型产生的值具有可比性，表明端杆模型不会低估破裂率。在1800年至1857年的历史时期，断裂长度超过85%，随后的平静与史前模型中的活动时期相似，这表明地震活动的区域聚集可能是该系统的一个特征。
Paleoseismic rupture histories provide spatiotemporal models of earthquake moment release needed to test numerical models and lengthen the instrumental catalog. We develop a model of the fewest and thus largest magnitude earthquakes permitted by paleoseismic data for the last 1,500 years on the southern San Andreas and San Jacinto Faults, California, USA. The largest geometric complexity appears to regulate the system: Only two ruptures break the San Gorgonio Pass region, followed by episodes of ruptures that could bridge the northern San Jacinto Fault and the San Andreas Fault. When tested against independent data on slip per event, the model produces comparable values indicating the end‐member model does not underpredict rupture rates. Rupture of >85% of the fault length in the historic period between 1800 and 1857 and the subsequent quiescence is similar to epochs of activity in the prehistoric model, suggesting that regional clustering of seismicity could be a trait of the system.