Climate Is Variable, but Is Our Science?
Climate Is Variable, but Is Our Science?
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气候是可变的，但我们的科学是可变的吗？
DOI：
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发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
K. Strock
中科院分区：
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作者：
A. A. Coble;R. Asch;S. Rivero;Sarah M. Heerhartz;J. Holding;Colin T. Kremer;Michael Finiguerra;K. Strock
当前气候在空间（从公里跨度到陆地生物群落和海洋盆地）和时间（跨越事件、季节、年际和年代际时间尺度）上表现出显著的变异。例如，在世界海洋的特定地点反复出现的气候事件被描述为跨越年际到十年尺度的模式，包括：厄尔Niño/南方涛动（ENSO），这是由赤道太平洋信风的变化引发的，北大西洋涛动（NAO）和太平洋年代际涛动（IPO）。这种自然变率叠加在全球气候变化的总趋势上。最近的研究强调了极端气候事件频率变化的重要性，即温度或降水的最大值和最小值的变化，这可能导致干旱、极端降雨事件或热浪的频率变化（Hartmann et al. 2013）。这种极端事件可能对生态系统和社会产生不成比例的影响。通常这些变化既不是空间上的也不是时间上的统一（塞林格2005）。下面我们将更详细地讨论如何在观测和实验水生生态学中考虑气候变率。多尺度的气候变率是一个不可避免的现实。水生生态学家必须面对变异性给实验和观察研究带来的挑战。减少或管理气候变化，无论是在科学上，试图梳理生态机制，还是在社会上，通过人类的努力来改变景观，都需要付出巨大的努力，而且往往产生好坏参半的结果。然而，变异是生态系统的自然和重要组成部分：它可以增强生物多样性，影响生态系统的生产力、稳定性和功能（Connell 1978; Noguerra et al. 2012）。通过将变异性纳入我们的研究，我们通常可以更详细地了解生态系统的功能（例如，Benedetti-Cecchi et al. 2006; Vasseur et al. 2014）。例如，Benedetti-Cecchi等人（2006）发现，在藻类和无脊椎动物群体中，时间变化和空气暴露的平均强度通常会引起相反的反应。此外，Vasseur等人（2014）认为，温度变化的变化，而不是平均温度，对物种性能的威胁更大。目前，我们对许多系统中可变性的功能和后果缺乏清晰的认识（Thompson et al. 2013），并且根据我们所知道的时间或空间进行外推可能会导致偏见和不准确。许多生态系统缺乏基线知识令人担忧，因为许多预测表明，气候变率的模式正在所有尺度上发生变化，包括区域、全球和季节（Salinger 2005）。作为水生科学家，我们预测这些变化后果的能力受到我们对影响生态系统的当代变化的作用的有限理解的阻碍。在这里，我们探讨了气候变率在湖泊学和海洋学领域的作用，以及研究变率复杂性及其对水生生态系统影响的重要性。
Current climate shows significant variability across space (from kilometers spanning to terrestrial biomes and ocean basins) and time (spanning event, seasonal, interannual, and decadal timescales). For example, recurring climate events in specific locations in the World’s Oceans have been described as modes spanning interannual-to-decadal scales including: El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) which is triggered by changes in equatorial Pacific tradewinds, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). This natural variability is superimposed on the general trend of global climate change. Recent studies highlight the importance of changes in the frequency of extreme climate events, i.e., changes in the maxima and minima of temperature or precipitation, which can lead to changes in the frequency of drought, extreme rain events, or heatwaves (Hartmann et al. 2013). Such extreme events can have disproportionate effects on ecosystems and society. Often these changes are neither spatially nor temporally uniform (Salinger 2005). Below we discuss in more detail how climate variability can be considered in observational and experimental aquatic ecology. Climate variability on multiple scales is an inescapable reality. Aquatic ecologists must confront the challenges variability imposes on experimental and observational studies. Reducing or managing climate variability, both scientifically, in an attempt to tease apart ecological mechanisms, and societally, through human efforts to modify landscapes, requires great effort and has often produced mixed results. However, variability is a natural and important part of ecological systems: it can enhance biological diversity and influence the productivity, stability, and function of ecosystems (Connell 1978; Noguerra et al. 2012). By incorporating variability into our studies, we often gain a more detailed understanding of how ecosystems function (e.g., Benedetti-Cecchi et al. 2006; Vasseur et al. 2014). For example, Benedetti-Cecchi et al. (2006) found that temporal variance and mean intensity of aerial exposure often elicited opposite responses in algal and invertebrate assemblages. Furthermore, Vasseur et al. (2014) suggested that changes in temperature variation, rather than mean temperature, are a greater threat to species performance. Currently, we lack a clear understanding of the function and consequences of variability in many systems (Thompson et al. 2013), and extrapolating what we do know across time or space can lead to bias and inaccuracies. This lack of baseline knowledge in many ecosystems is concerning, as many predictions suggest that patterns of climate variability are changing on all scalesregionally, globally, and seasonally (Salinger 2005). Our ability as aquatic scientists to predict the consequences of these changes is hampered by our limited understanding of the role of even contemporary variability in influencing ecosystems. Here, we explore the role of climate variability in the fields of limnology and oceanography and the importance of studying the intricacies of variability and its effects on aquatic ecosystems.