Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil
Evaluating probabilistic dengue risk forecasts from a prototype early warning system for Brazil
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DOI：
10.7554/elife.11285
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发表时间：
2016-02-24
期刊：
影响因子：
7.7
通讯作者：
Rodo, Xavier
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Lowe, Rachel;Coelho, Caio A. S.;Rodo, Xavier
最近，一个登革热预警原型系统被开发出来，以便在2014年巴西世界杯前三个月产生登革热风险的概率预测。在这里，我们使用2014年6月报告的登革热病例对巴西所有微型地区的登革热绝对预测进行评估，以验证该模型。我们还根据以前观察到的登革热发病率的季节平均值，将预测模型框架与零模型进行了比较。当考虑到这两个模型预测巴西登革热高风险的能力时，预测模型比零模型产生更多的命中和更少的遗漏事件，预测模型的命中率为57%，而零模型的命中率为33%。这一预警模型框架可能对公共卫生服务有用，不仅在大规模集会之前，而且在每年登革热高峰期之前，以控制潜在的爆炸性登革热流行。
Recently, a prototype dengue early warning system was developed to produce probabilistic forecasts of dengue risk three months ahead of the 2014 World Cup in Brazil. Here, we evaluate the categorical dengue forecasts across all microregions in Brazil, using dengue cases reported in June 2014 to validate the model. We also compare the forecast model framework to a null model, based on seasonal averages of previously observed dengue incidence. When considering the ability of the two models to predict high dengue risk across Brazil, the forecast model produced more hits and fewer missed events than the null model, with a hit rate of 57% for the forecast model compared to 33% for the null model. This early warning model framework may be useful to public health services, not only ahead of mass gatherings, but also before the peak dengue season each year, to control potentially explosive dengue epidemics.