The Resilience of Public Policies in Economic Development
The Resilience of Public Policies in Economic Development
复制标题
经济发展中公共政策的弹性
DOI：
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发表时间：
2018
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
Omar A. Guerrero
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gonzalo Castañeda;Omar A. Guerrero
本文研究了政府为促进经济发展而设计的公共政策的弹性。这一性质取决于当特定政策不能按最初计划提供资金时，行为启发式和溢出效应在多大程度上允许政策制定者实现其原始目标。例如，当自然灾害或政治动荡等意想不到的事件阻碍资源用于推进某些政策问题时，例如基础设施或劳工改革，就会发生这种情况。在这里，我们分析政策制定过程的适应能力如何在面临中断时产生弹性。为了估计跨策略的资源分配，我们采用了一个计算模型，该模型考虑了不同的社会机制，例如，共同进化学习和网络相互依赖。在我们的模拟中，我们使用了117个国家在11年期间79项发展指标的数据集。然后，我们通过对政策中断的反事实分析，计算出与每个发展指标相对应的韧性得分。接下来，我们评估一些发展战略是否会产生有弹性/脆弱的政策概况。最后，通过研究政策韧性与政策优先级的关系，确定哪些问题是制约经济发展的瓶颈。
This paper studies the resilience of public policies that governments design for catalyzing economic development. This property depends on the extent to which behavioral heuristics and spillover effects allow policymakers to attain their original goals when a particular policy cannot be funded as originally planned. This scenario takes place, for example, when unanticipated events such as natural disasters or political turmoil obstruct the use of resources to advance certain policy issues, e.g., infrastructure or labor reforms. Here, we analyze how the adaptive capacity of the policy-making process generates resilience in the face of disruptions. In order to estimate the allocation of resources across policies, we employ a computational model that accounts for diverse social mechanisms, for example, coevolutionary learning and network interdependencies. In our simulations, we use a data set of 117 countries on 79 development indicators over an 11-year period. Then, we calculate a resilience score corresponding to each development indicator via counter-factual analysis of policy disruptions. Next, we assess whether some development strategies produce resilient/fragile policy profiles. Finally, by studying the relationship between policy resilience and policy priority, we determine which issues are bottlenecks to economic development.