Probabilistic Analysis of Small-Signal Stability of Large-Scale Power Systems as Affected by Penetration of Wind Generation
Probabilistic Analysis of Small-Signal Stability of Large-Scale Power Systems as Affected by Penetration of Wind Generation
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DOI：
10.1109/tpwrs.2011.2170183
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发表时间：
2012-05
影响因子：
6.6
通讯作者：
Siqi Bu;W. Du;Haifeng Wang;Zhe Chen;Liye Xiao;H. Li
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Siqi Bu;W. Du;Haifeng Wang;Zhe Chen;Liye Xiao;H. Li
本文提出了一种概率分析方法来研究并网风力发电的随机不确定性对电力系统小信号稳定性的影响。与蒙特卡罗模拟中依赖大量随机计算的数值方法相比，所提出的方法是“解析的”。它可以直接从并网多源风力发电的概率密度函数（PDF）中计算出大型电力系统临界特征值的概率密度函数（PDF），从而确定风力发电对电力系统概率小信号稳定性的影响。本文以一个16机并网的3个风电场系统为例，验证了该方法的应用。通过蒙特卡罗仿真验证了实例电力系统概率稳定性分析的结果。研究表明，即使系统是确定性稳定的，但并网风力发电的随机变化也会导致系统失稳。风穿透水平越高，系统变得不稳定的可能性越大。因此，就系统小信号稳定性而言，随机变量风力发电的渗透确实威胁着电力系统的稳定运行。
This paper proposes a method of probabilistic analysis to investigate the impact of stochastic uncertainty of grid-connected wind generation on power system small-signal stability. The proposed method is “analytical” in contrast to the numerical method of Monte Carlo simulation which relies on large number of random computations. It can directly calculate the probabilistic density function (PDF) of critical eigenvalues of a large-scale power system from the PDF of grid-connected multiple sources of wind power generation, thus to determine the probabilistic small-signal stability of the power system as affected by the wind generation. In the paper, an example of 16-machine power system with three grid-connected wind farms is used to demonstrate the application of the proposed method. The results of probabilistic stability analysis of the example power system are confirmed by the Monte Carlo simulation. It is shown that the stochastic variation of grid-connected wind generation can cause the system to lose stability even though the system is stable deterministically. The higher the level of wind penetration is, the more the probability that the system becomes unstable could be. Hence indeed penetration of stochastically variable wind generation threatens stable operation of power systems as far as system small-signal stability is concerned.