Individual-based computational modeling of smallpox epidemic control strategies
Individual-based computational modeling of smallpox epidemic control strategies
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DOI：
10.1197/j.aem.2006.07.017
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发表时间：
2006-11-01
影响因子：
4.4
通讯作者：
Chakravarty, Shubha
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Burke, Donald S.;Epstein, Joshua M.;Chakravarty, Shubha
为了回应对可能的生物恐怖主义的担忧，作者开发了一个基于个体（或“基于代理人”）的天花流行病传播和控制的计算模型。该模型明确地表示了一个由个人组成的“人工社会”，每个人都作为一个不同的对象或计算机程序中的数据结构来实现。这些代理在代码表示的社会单位（如家庭、工作场所、学校和医院）中进行本地交互。经过多次迭代，这些微观相互作用产生具有根本意义的大规模宏观现象，例如流行病在空间和时间上的进程。模型变量（潜伏期、临床疾病表现、传染性和身体活动性）按照天花专家咨询小组商定的现实值进行分配。在两个流行病规模上评估了八种应对方案，一种是在一个6000人的城镇中引入10例天花病例，另一种是在一个5万人的城镇中引入500例天花病例。建模工作表明，接触者追踪和家庭、工作场所和学校接触者的疫苗接种，以及医院工作人员的迅速反应性疫苗接种和诊断病例的隔离，可以在所检查的两种流行病规模上遏制天花。
In response to concerns about possible bioterrorism, the authors developed an individual-based (or "agent-based") computational model of smallpox epidemic transmission and control. The model explicitly represents an "artificial society" of individual human beings, each implemented as a distinct object, or data structure in a computer program. These agents interact locally with one another in code-represented social units such as homes, workplaces, schools, and hospitals. Over many iterations, these microinteractions generate large-scale macroscopic phenomena of fundamental interest such as the course of an epidemic in space and time. Model variables (incubation periods, clinical disease expression, contagiousness, and physical mobility) were assigned following realistic values agreed on by an advisory group of experts on smallpox. Eight response scenarios were evaluated at two epidemic scales, one being an introduction of ten smallpox cases into a 6,000-person town and the other an introduction of 500 smallpox cases into a 50,000-person town. The modeling exercise showed that contact tracing and vaccination of household, workplace, and school contacts, along with prompt reactive vaccination of hospital workers and isolation of diagnosed cases, could contain smallpox at both epidemic scales examined.