History Dependent Brand Switching: Theory and Evidence
History Dependent Brand Switching: Theory and Evidence
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历史相关的品牌转换：理论与证据
DOI：
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发表时间：
1995
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Pazgal
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
I. Gilboa;A. Pazgal
我们提出了一个品牌转换模型，在这个模型中，消费者对每个品牌的印象是基于她对过去消费该品牌的记忆，并且在消费该品牌时随机更新。在该模型的序数版本中，消费者的记忆是可用品牌的排序。顶级品牌被选择和消费，因此可能会转移到不同的排名。在基本版本中，消费者记住每个品牌的“累积效用指数”，当一个品牌被消费时，该指数通过添加一个随机变量来更新，解释为“瞬时效用”。在这两个版本的模型中，可以假设消费者有时是“休眠”的，出于惯性选择同一个品牌，或者她总是“活跃”的，根据她的累积记忆重新评估她的决定。我们证明，在所有版本中，选择的频率以概率1收敛到可以从模型参数计算的极限频率。我们还证明，在温和的假设下，每个选择序列都有正概率。我们通过对购买饼干、酸奶和番茄酱的扫描数据进行了实证检验。我们证明了“顺序效应”和“惯性效应”同时存在。具体来说，序数车型的表现明显好于限制版，后者只召回最后一个品牌。同样，该模型在有惯性假设的情况下比没有惯性假设的情况下表现明显更好。
We present a model of brand-switching in which a consumer's impression of each brand is based on her memory of past consumption of this brand, and is stochastically updated whenever the brand is consumed. In the ordinal version of the model, consumer's memory is an ordering of the available brands. The top brand is chosen and consumed, and may therefore move to a different ranking. In the cardinal version, the consumer remembers a "cumulative utility index" per brand, and, when a brand is consumed, the index is updated by the addition of a random variable, interpreted as "instantaneous utility." In both versions of the model it may be assumed that the consumer may sometimes be "dormant," choosing the same brand out of inertia, or that she is always "active," re-evaluating her decision based on her cumulative memory. We prove that, in all versions, the frequencies of choice converge, with probability 1, to limit frequencies which can be computed from the model's parameters. We also show that, under mild assumptions, every sequence of choices would have a positive probability. We test the ordinal model empirically, using scanner data on purchases of crackers, yogurts, and catsups. We show that both the "order effect" and the "inertia effect" exist. Specifically, the ordinal model performs significantly better than its restricted version, in which only the last brand is recalled. Similarly, the model performs significantly better with the inertia assumption than without it.