Application of a coastal model to simulate present and future inundation and aid coastal management
Application of a coastal model to simulate present and future inundation and aid coastal management
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应用沿海模型来模拟当前和未来的洪水并协助沿海管理
DOI：
10.1007/s11852-010-0113-4
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发表时间：
2011
影响因子：
2.1
通讯作者：
Rodney Jones
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
P. Robins;A. Davies;Rodney Jones
本文介绍了应用沿海水文信息建模（使用TELEMAC建模系统），以解决管理问题所产生的预测水动力和形态变化在一个浅，桑迪河口环境。该模式综合了海洋、陆地和大气过程的复杂相互作用。在威尔士西海岸的Dyfi河口的案例研究，在这里强调。由于海平面已经局部上升，预计将进一步上升，国家自然保护区（Borth沼泽），这已经从潮汐沃茨填海，将在增加的风险，从洪水事件，由于这些洪水在涨潮时漫顶。目前和预测的未来潮汐-河流情景已在Dyfi河口建模，以估计潜在的洪水。此外，还查明了流速变化最大和可能发生沉积物侵蚀/堆积的地区。另一个已经被研究的过程是盐沼迁移如何受到海平面上升的影响。本案例研究阐明了河口固有的一些基本和复杂的物理过程，并显示了如何不同的管理方案可以进行评估，在其实施之前，通过建模方法。
This paper describes the application of coastal hydro-informatic modelling (using the TELEMAC Modelling System) to address management issues arising from projected hydrodynamical and morphological changes within a shallow, sandy estuarine environment. The model incorporates the complex interaction of ocean, terrestrial and atmospheric processes. The case study of the Dyfi Estuary, on the west coast of Wales, is highlighted here. As sea levels have risen locally and are predicted to rise further, a National Nature Reserve (Borth Bog), which has been reclaimed from tidal waters by embankments, will be at increasing risk from flooding episodes due to overtopping of these embankments at high tide. Present and predicted future tidal-fluvial scenarios have been modelled in the Dyfi Estuary in order to estimate the potential for flooding. In addition, areas of greatest velocity change and potential for sediment erosion/accretion have been identified. A further process that has been investigated is how salt marsh migration is affected by sea-level rise. This case study exemplifies some fundamental and complex physical processes inherent to estuaries, and shows how different management options can be assessed, before their implementation, through a modelling approach.