Climate change affects the distribution of diversity across marine food webs
Climate change affects the distribution of diversity across marine food webs
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DOI：
10.1111/gcb.16881
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发表时间：
2023-10-10
影响因子：
11.6
通讯作者：
Lynam，Christopher P.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Thompson，Murray S. A.;Couce，Elena;Lynam，Christopher P.
许多研究预测物种分布和群落规模组成会因气候变化而发生变化，但很少有研究表明这些变化将如何在海洋食物网中分布。我们使用贝叶斯加性回归树来模拟气候变化将如何影响海洋鱼类的栖息地适合性，这些鱼类的体型范围很大，属于不同的摄食公会，在东北大西洋陆架海域，每个公会都有不同的栖息地和摄食要求。对比气候变化的影响，预计饲养公会，空间广泛的减少消费者的物种丰富度较低的食物网（食鱼动物），但增加那些较高的（食鱼动物）。变化的捕食者-猎物质量比和鱼类的大小组成的空间格局也预测喂养公会和整个鱼类组合。这些变化结合在一起，可能会影响养分的吸收和转化、转移效率和食物网稳定性，从而深刻地改变生态系统的结构和功能。
Many studies predict shifts in species distributions and community size composition in response to climate change, yet few have demonstrated how these changes will be distributed across marine food webs. We use Bayesian Additive Regression Trees to model how climate change will affect the habitat suitability of marine fish species across a range of body sizes and belonging to different feeding guilds, each with different habitat and feeding requirements in the northeast Atlantic shelf seas. Contrasting effects of climate change are predicted for feeding guilds, with spatially extensive decreases in the species richness of consumers lower in the food web (planktivores) but increases for those higher up (piscivores). Changing spatial patterns in predator–prey mass ratios and fish species size composition are also predicted for feeding guilds and across the fish assemblage. In combination, these changes could influence nutrient uptake and transformation, transfer efficiency and food web stability, and thus profoundly alter ecosystem structure and functioning.