On the implications of declining population growth for regional migration
On the implications of declining population growth for regional migration
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人口增长下降对区域移民的影响
DOI：
10.1007/s00712-017-0556-2
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发表时间：
2017
影响因子：
1.7
通讯作者：
Thomas Christiaans
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Thomas Christiaans
尽管如今许多发达经济体的人口都在减少，但迄今为止，经济增长模型中的移民几乎都是在人口非负增长率的情况下进行分析的。本文在两个双部门增长模型中考虑了人口增长率的下降和可能的负增长。只要偏好是同质的，无论是人口增长率的下降还是实际人口的减少都不会导致朝任何一个方向的迁移。引入准线性偏好意味着人口增长的下降会导致从农村向工业区的迁移。如果人口增长率低于-实物资本折旧率，农村地区就会发生人口完全减少。这些结果强化了人们对农村人口外流的悲观预期。
Although many advanced economies nowadays experience decreasing populations, migration in models of economic growth has so far been almost exclusively analyzed for the case of non-negative population growth rates. This paper considers decreasing and possibly negative population growth rates in two two-sector growth models. As long as preferences are homothetic, neither a decrease in population growth rates nor an actual population decline does induce migration in either direction. Introducing quasi-linear preferences implies that a decline in population growth leads to migration from the rural to the industrial region. A complete depopulation of the rural region takes place if the population growth rate falls short of minus the rate of physical capital depreciation. These results reinforce pessimistic expectations about a rural exodus.