Future transitions from a conifer to a deciduous-dominated landscape are accelerated by greater wildfire activity and climate change in interior Alaska
Future transitions from a conifer to a deciduous-dominated landscape are accelerated by greater wildfire activity and climate change in interior Alaska
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阿拉斯加内陆地区更大的野火活动和气候变化将加速未来从针叶树到落叶树为主的景观的转变
DOI：
10.1007/s10980-023-01733-8
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发表时间：
2023
影响因子：
5.2
通讯作者：
Lucash, Melissa S.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Weiss, Shelby A.;Marshall, Adrienne M.;Hayes, Katherine R.;Nicolsky, Dmitry J.;Buma, Brian;Lucash, Melissa S.
背景在阿拉斯加内陆，与气候变化相关的野火活动预计将继续增加，可能会改变地区森林构成。针叶树是北方森林的象征；然而，在许多研究中发现，更频繁和更严重的野火有利于阔叶落叶物种。目的本研究考察了阿拉斯加内陆森林类型的潜在转变以及未来气候变化下反复发生的野火对转变的影响。方法使用空间显式森林景观模型LANDIS-II，模拟历史和未来气候(RCP 8.5)下380,400公顷景观的森林演替和野火。野火用SCRPPLE火势扩展模拟，植被生长用DGS演替扩展模拟地下碳、水文和冻土动态。利用随机森林模型，对不同森林火灾频度的不同景观区域，量化了森林类型变化驱动因素的相对重要性。结果森林火灾活动频率较高与针叶树种为主的区域向阔叶落叶交错地带的转移有关，气候变化加速了这种变化。植被转变受最近一次野火造成的树木死亡率影响最大。火前成熟黑云杉的开始落叶比例和距离也有影响，说明火前的组成和环境改变了植被转移的效果。结论这些结果强调了该地区森林类型的转变可能以一种非线性的方式发生，因为该地区的景观受到气候变化的压力，森林受到野火、气候、地下过程和森林群落结构之间的复杂相互作用。
ContextIn interior Alaska, increasing wildfire activity associated with climate change is projected to continue, potentially altering regional forest composition. Conifers are emblematic of boreal forest; however, greater frequency and severity of wildfires has been found to favor broadleaf-deciduous species in numerous studies.ObjectivesThis study examines potential shifts in forest type in interior Alaska and how shifts may be impacted by recurring wildfires under future climate change.MethodsA spatially-explicit forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, was used to simulate forest succession and wildfire over a 380,400-hectare landscape under historic and future (RCP 8.5) climate. Wildfire was modeled using the SCRPPLE fire extension and vegetation growth, belowground carbon, hydrologic, and permafrost dynamics were modeled with the DGS succession extension. The relative importance of drivers of forest type change away from black spruce was quantified using random forest models for areas on the landscape experiencing different numbers of wildfires.ResultsGreater frequencies of fire activity were associated with shifts in conifer-dominant areas to broadleaf-deciduous, which climate change accelerated. Vegetation transitions were most strongly influenced by percent tree mortality from the most recent wildfire. Starting deciduous fraction and proximity of mature black spruce to a site pre-fire were also influential, indicating pre-fire composition and context modified the effect of vegetation shifts.ConclusionsThese results underscore how shifts in forest type may occur in a nonlinear manner in this region as the landscape experiences pressure from climate change and forests are subject to complex interactions between wildfire, climate, belowground processes, and the arrangement of forest communities.
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影响因子：
3.1
作者：
Foster, Adrianna C.;Armstrong, Amanda H.;Ranson, K. Jon
通讯作者：
Ranson, K. Jon
影响因子：
10.1
作者：
Buma, Brian;Brown, Carissa D.;Johnstone, Jill F.
通讯作者：
Johnstone, Jill F.
影响因子：
5.8
作者：
Aaron M. Christ
通讯作者：
Aaron M. Christ
在北美北方生物群落的森林转变之后，另一种植被类型被证明具有弹性并持续存在数十年
影响因子：
5.5
作者：
Winslow D. Hansen;Ryan Fitzsimmons;J. Olnes;A. P. Williams
通讯作者：
A. P. Williams
DOI：
--
发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
作者：
Yang Yang;R. Yanai;F. Fatemi;C. R. Levine;P. Lilly;R. Briggs
通讯作者：
R. Briggs