Serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections
Serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) infections
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.ijid.2020.02.060
复制
发表时间：
2020-04-01
影响因子：
8.4
通讯作者：
Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Nishiura, Hiroshi;Linton, Natalie M.;Akhmetzhanov, Andrei R.
目的：从28对感染对资料中估计新型冠状病毒（COVID-19）的序列间隔。方法：我们从已发表的研究文章和病例调查报告中收集原发性病例（感染者）和继发性病例（感染者）的发病日期。我们主观地对数据的可信度进行了排序，并对完整数据集（n = 28）和报告中最确定的配对子集（n = 18）进行了分析。此外，由于疫情仍处于增长阶段，我们对数据的右截断进行了调整。结果：考虑到右截断并分析所有对，我们估计中位序列间隔为4.0天（95%可信区间[CrI]: 3.1, 4.9）。将我们的数据限制在最确定的配对中，中位序列间隔估计为4.6天（95% CrI: 3.5, 5.9）。结论：新型冠状病毒系列间隔接近或短于中位潜伏期。这表明相当大比例的继发性传播可能发生在发病之前。COVID-19的序列间隔也短于严重急性呼吸综合征（SARS）的序列间隔，这表明使用SARS序列间隔进行的计算可能存在偏差。(C) 2020作者。由爱思唯尔有限公司代表国际传染病学会出版。
Objective: To estimate the serial interval of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) from information on 28 infector-infectee pairs.Methods: We collected dates of illness onset for primary cases (infectors) and secondary cases (infectees) from published research articles and case investigation reports. We subjectively ranked the credibility of the data and performed analyses on both the full dataset (n = 28) and a subset of pairs with highest certainty in reporting (n = 18). In addition, we adjust for right truncation of the data as the epidemic is still in its growth phase.Results: Accounting for right truncation and analyzing all pairs, we estimated the median serial interval at 4.0 days (95% credible interval [CrI]: 3.1, 4.9). Limiting our data to only the most certain pairs, the median serial interval was estimated at 4.6 days (95% CrI: 3.5, 5.9).Conclusions: The serial interval of COVID-19 is close to or shorter than its median incubation period. This suggests that a substantial proportion of secondary transmission may occur prior to illness onset. The COVID-19 serial interval is also shorter than the serial interval of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), indicating that calculations made using the SARS serial interval may introduce bias. (C) 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd on behalf of International Society for Infectious Diseases.