PROGRAM ON THE GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHY OF AGING Working Paper Series The Long-Run Determinants of Fertility : One Century of Demographic Change 1900-1999
PROGRAM ON THE GLOBAL DEMOGRAPHY OF AGING Working Paper Series The Long-Run Determinants of Fertility : One Century of Demographic Change 1900-1999
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发表时间：
2011
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通讯作者：
D. Herzer;Holger Strulik;Sebastian Vollmer
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作者：
D. Herzer;Holger Strulik;Sebastian Vollmer
我们使用面板协整技术和上世纪的可用数据来检验生育率、死亡率和收入之间的长期关系。我们的主要结果是，死亡率的变化和人均收入的增长是人口结构转型所特有的生育率变化的主要部分。然而，死亡率下降导致的生育率下降不足以过度抵消死亡率下降对人口增长的积极影响。这意味着人均收入的增长对于解释观察到的人口增长长期下降至关重要。这些结果对替代估计方法、潜在离群值、样本选择、不同的死亡率测量和样本周期具有稳健性。此外，我们的因果关系检验表明，生育率的变化既是经济发展的原因，也是经济发展的结果。
We examine the long-run relationship between fertility, mortality, and income using panel cointegration techniques and the available data for the last century. Our main result is that mortality changes and growth of income per capita account for a major part of the fertility change characterizing the demographic transition. The fertility reduction triggered by falling mortality, however, is not enough to overcompensate the positive effect of falling mortality on population growth. This means that growth of income per capita is essential to explain the observed secular decline of population growth. These results are robust against alternative estimation methods, potential outliers, sample selection, different measures of mortality, and the sample period. In addition, our causality tests suggest that fertility changes are both cause and consequence of economic development.