On the importance of the participation margin for labor market fluctuations
On the importance of the participation margin for labor market fluctuations
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DOI：
10.1016/j.jmoneco.2015.01.004
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发表时间：
2015-05-01
影响因子：
4.1
通讯作者：
Sahin, Ayseguel
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Elsby, Michael W. L.;Hobijn, Bart;Sahin, Ayseguel
对劳动力市场波动的传统分析认为劳动力参与率的作用较小。相比之下，我们表明，基于流量的分析意味着参与边际约占失业波动的三分之一。一种新颖的库存流量装置证实了这些事实，并提供了三个进一步的贡献。首先，参与边际的作用对于报告错误引起的虚假过渡的调整似乎很强大。其次，传统的基于股票的分析容易受到股票流动谬误的影响，忽略了工人流动对参与率的抵消作用。第三，经济衰退期间失业者劳动力依附性的增加是参与边际作用的主要解释。 (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. 保留所有权利。
Conventional analyses of labor market fluctuations ascribe a minor role to labor force participation. We show, by contrast, that flows-based analyses imply that the participation margin accounts for around one-third of unemployment fluctuations. A novel stock-flow apparatus establishes these facts, delivering three further contributions. First, the role of the participation margin appears robust to adjustments for spurious transitions induced by reporting error. Second, conventional stocks-based analyses are subject to a stock-flow fallacy, neglecting offsetting forces of worker flows on the participation rate. Third, increases in labor force attachment among the unemployed during recessions are a leading explanation for the role of the participation margin. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.