Modeling the dynamics of novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) with fractional derivative

Modeling the dynamics of novel coronavirus (2019-nCov) with fractional derivative
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DOI:
10.1016/j.aej.2020.02.033
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发表时间:
2020-03-14
影响因子:
6.8
通讯作者:
Atangana A
Atangana A
中科院分区:
工程技术3区
文献类型:
--
作者:
Khan MA;Atangana A

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本文描述了一种新型冠状病毒(2019-nCoV)的数学建模和动力学。我们描述的蝙蝠和未知的主机之间的相互作用的简要细节,然后之间的人和感染水库(海鲜市场)。当蝙蝠和未知宿主(可能是野生动物)将感染留在那里时,标记的海鲜被认为是主要的感染源。人们从海鲜市场购买的物品有能力感染无症状或无症状。我们简化了模型,假设海鲜市场有足够的传染源,可以有效地感染人。我们提出了模型的数学结果,然后制定一个分数模型。我们考虑了2020年1月21日至2020年1月28日的可用感染病例,并对模型进行了参数化。我们计算数据的基本再生数为。分数阶模型的数值求解给出了许多图形结果,这可能有助于感染最小化。
The present paper describes the mathematical modeling and dynamics of a novel corona virus (2019-nCoV). We describe the brief details of interaction among the bats and unknown hosts, then among the peoples and the infections reservoir (seafood market). The seafood marked are considered the main source of infection when the bats and the unknown hosts (may be wild animals) leaves the infection there. The purchasing of items from the seafood market by peoples have the ability to infect either asymptomatically or symptomatically. We reduced the model with the assumptions that the seafood market has enough source of infection that can be effective to infect people. We present the mathematical results of the model and then formulate a fractional model. We consider the available infection cases for January 21, 2020, till January 28, 2020 and parameterized the model. We compute the basic reproduction number for the data is . The fractional model is then solved numerically by presenting many graphical results, which can be helpful for the infection minimization.
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