Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk
Climate change increases cross-species viral transmission risk
复制标题
气候变化增加跨物种病毒传播风险
DOI：
10.1038/s41586-022-04788-w
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发表时间：
2022-07-21
期刊：
影响因子：
64.8
通讯作者：
Bansal, Shweta
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Carlson, Colin J.;Albery, Gregory F.;Bansal, Shweta
至少有10，000种病毒具有感染人类的能力，但目前，绝大多数病毒在野生哺乳动物中悄悄传播（1，2）。然而，气候和土地利用的变化将为以前地理隔离的野生动物物种之间的病毒共享带来机会（3，4）。在某些情况下，这将促进人畜共患病的溢出效应全球环境变化和疾病出现之间的机械联系。在这里，我们模拟了未来病毒共享的潜在热点，使用哺乳动物病毒网络的地理模型，并预测了2070年气候变化和土地利用情况下3,139种哺乳动物物种的地理范围变化。我们预测，物种将在高海拔地区、生物多样性热点地区以及亚洲和非洲人口密度高的地区聚集成新的组合，导致其相关病毒的跨物种传播估计达4,000倍。由于它们独特的传播能力，蝙蝠占新病毒共享的大多数，并且可能沿着沿着进化途径共享病毒，这将促进未来在人类中的出现。值得注意的是，我们发现这种生态转变可能已经开始，并且在二十一世纪将变暖控制在2摄氏度以下不会减少未来的病毒共享。我们的研究结果强调，迫切需要将病毒监测和发现工作与跟踪物种范围变化的生物多样性调查相结合，特别是在包含最多人畜共患病并正在经历快速变暖的热带地区。
At least 10,000 virus species have the ability to infect humans but, at present, the vast majority are circulating silently in wild mammals(1,2). However, changes in climate and land use will lead to opportunities for viral sharing among previously geographically isolated species of wildlife(3,4). In some cases, this will facilitate zoonotic spillover-a mechanistic link between global environmental change and disease emergence. Here we simulate potential hotspots of future viral sharing, using a phylogeographical model of the mammal-virus network, and projections of geographical range shifts for 3,139 mammal species under climate-change and land-use scenarios for the year 2070. We predict that species will aggregate in new combinations at high elevations, in biodiversity hotspots, and in areas of high human population density in Asia and Africa, causing the cross-species transmission of their associated viruses an estimated 4,000 times. Owing to their unique dispersal ability, bats account for the majority of novel viral sharing and are likely to share viruses along evolutionary pathways that will facilitate future emergence in humans. Notably, we find that this ecological transition may already be underway, and holding warming under 2 degrees C within the twenty-first century will not reduce future viral sharing. Our findings highlight an urgent need to pair viral surveillance and discovery efforts with biodiversity surveys tracking the range shifts of species, especially in tropical regions that contain the most zoonoses and are experiencing rapid warming.