Resource implications of alternative strategies for achieving zero greenhouse gas emissions from light-duty vehicles by 2060
Resource implications of alternative strategies for achieving zero greenhouse gas emissions from light-duty vehicles by 2060
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DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.11.074
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发表时间：
2018-02
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
L.D. Danny Harvey
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
L.D. Danny Harvey
本文探讨了替代战略，以消除使用石油的客运轻型车辆（LDV：汽车、SUV和轻型卡车），即大幅降低LDV的能源强度（MJ/vkm），并转向混合动力和/或全电动汽车，或者与剩余燃料需求向无碳燃料（可再生生物燃料或由无碳能源产生并用于燃料电池的氢）的转变相结合。这些措施的不同组合对土地面积要求（生物燃料）、额外电力要求（电动汽车或电解制氢）以及对潜在限制金属（特别是Pt、Ru、Li和Nd）的需求有着截然不同的影响。最近对先进车辆中电池、燃料电池和电机尺寸的估计以及相应的材料装载量，与全球车队增长和回收潜力的情景相结合，以估计未来的材料需求。为了使任何化石燃料的替代品在下一个世纪都是可持续的，必须将LDV能量强度推到技术上可实现的最低潜力，实现贵金属负载的显着减少，并实现90%或更高的回收效率。即使这样，长期的可持续性也不能得到保证，这意味着下一个世纪城市发展和再开发的主要重点应该是创造很少或不依赖私人汽车运输的城市。
This paper examines alternative strategies for eliminating the use of oil for passenger transportation in light duty vehicles (LDVs: cars, SUVs and light trucks) by 2060, namely, deep reductions in the energy intensity (MJ/vkm) of LDVs combined with a shift to hybrid and/or all-electric vehicles, or combined with a shift of the residual fuel requirements to C-free fuels (either renewable biofuels or hydrogen produced from C-free energy sources, and used in a fuel cell). Different combinations of these measures have dramatically different implications concerning land area requirements (for biofuels), additional electricity requirements (for electric vehicles or to produce hydrogen electrolytically), and in the demand for potentially limiting metals (Pt, Ru, Li and Nd in particular). Recent estimates of battery, fuel cell and motor sizes in advanced vehicles, and corresponding material loadings, are combined with scenarios for the growth of the global vehicle fleet and recycling potential to estimate future material requirements. For any of the alternative to fossil fuels to be sustainable over the next century, it is essential that LDV energy intensity be pushed to the lowest technically achievable potential, that significant reductions in precious metal loadings be achieved, and that 90% or better recycling efficiency be achieved. Even then, longer term sustainability is not guaranteed, which implies that the primary emphasis in urban development and redevelopment over the next century should be to create cities with little to no dependence on the private automobile for transportation.