Why was the Paraná flood of 2016 weaker than that of 1998?
Why was the Paraná flood of 2016 weaker than that of 1998?
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DOI：
10.1002/joc.6204
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发表时间：
2019-07
期刊：
影响因子：
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通讯作者：
A. Antico;H. Diaz
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
A. Antico;H. Diaz
虽然预计2015-2016年厄尔尼诺现象将导致类似于1997-1998年厄尔尼诺现象的严重巴拉那河洪水，但2016年的巴拉那河洪水比1998年要弱得多。在这里，我们通过分析巴拉那流量数据(1904-2017)来解释这一点，以评估不同频率和不同相关气候模式的流量周期对1998年和2016年洪水形成的贡献。我们发现，2016年的洪水相对较弱，主要是因为以下帕拉纳流量周期对2016年洪水的贡献小于对1998年洪水的贡献：(A)与厄尔尼诺/南方涛动(ENSO)有关的3-5年周期，(B)与北大西洋涛动(NAO)有关的9年周期，以及(C)与年代际太平洋涛动(IPO)有关的31-85年周期。这一发现表明，除了ENSO，另外两种气候模式(NAO和IPO)可能对2016年的洪水起到了减弱作用。
Although the 2015–2016 El Niño was expected to cause a severe Paraná River flood similar to that associated with the 1997–1998 El Niño, the Paraná flood of 2016 was considerably weaker than that of 1998. Here we explain this by analysing Paraná discharge data (1904–2017) to assess the contributions of discharge cycles with different frequencies and with different associated climate modes to the formation of the 1998 and 2016 floods. We found that the 2016 flood was relatively weak mainly because the following Paraná discharge cycles contributed less to form the 2016 flood than to form the 1998 flood: (a) a 3–5‐year cycle linked to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), (b) a 9‐year cycle related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and (c) a 31–85‐year cycle associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). This finding suggests that, besides ENSO, two other climate modes (NAO and IPO) may have acted to weaken the 2016 flood.