Scenario planning with a sociological eye: Augmenting the intuitive logics approach to understanding the Future of Scotland and the UK
Scenario planning with a sociological eye: Augmenting the intuitive logics approach to understanding the Future of Scotland and the UK
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DOI：
10.1016/j.techfore.2016.08.026
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发表时间：
2017-11
影响因子：
12
通讯作者：
Professor R. Bradley MacKay;Dr. Veselina Stoyanova
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Professor R. Bradley MacKay;Dr. Veselina Stoyanova
本文利用社会理论对因果关系的理解来说明主体-结构相互作用的概念如何增强场景规划的直觉逻辑(IL)方法。它在IL方法中融入了诸如主体的主观倾向、社会系统的客观结构、活动依赖、行动的意外后果和事件-时间时间性等概念，以增强情景发展过程中的因果分析。本文通过在2014年9月18日苏格兰脱离联合王国的独立公投前进行的情景演练中的应用，说明了基于社会理论的IL框架。这篇论文的中心论点是，代理人-结构的相互作用通过约束和促进可能出现的未来的范围，支撑着社会系统中未来的展开
This paper draws on a social theory-informed understanding of causality to illustrate how notions of agent–structure interactions can enhance the intuitive logics (IL) approach to scenario planning. It incorporates concepts such as the ‘subjective’ predispositions of agency, ‘objective’ structures of social systems, activity dependence, unintended consequences of action and event-time temporality in the IL method to augment causal analysis in the scenario development process. The paper illustrates the social theory-informed IL framework through its application to a scenario exercise undertaken in the lead-up to the Scottish referendum on independence from the United Kingdom on September 18th, 2014. The central thesis of the paper is that agent–structure interactions underpin the unfolding of futures in social systems by both constraining and enabling the range of possible futures that can emerge