Predicting Honeybee Colony Failure: Using the BEEHAVE Model to Simulate Colony Responses to Pesticides.
Predicting Honeybee Colony Failure: Using the BEEHAVE Model to Simulate Colony Responses to Pesticides.
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DOI：
10.1021/acs.est.5b03593
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发表时间：
2015-11-03
影响因子：
11.4
通讯作者：
Osborne JL
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Rumkee JC;Becher MA;Thorbek P;Kennedy PJ;Osborne JL
为了模拟农药对蜜蜂 (Apis mellifera L.) 不同生命阶段的影响，我们使用 BEEHAVE 模型来探索幼虫、蜂巢工蜂和觅食者死亡率的增加以及产蛋率的降低如何影响多年来的蜂群动态。施加压力 30 天，既作为建模对照死亡率的倍数，又作为设定的每日死亡率百分比，以评估建模群体对死亡率小幅波动和每日死亡率从低到极高时期的敏感性。这些应激模拟不同生命阶段的程式化暴露于受农药污染的花蜜和花粉 30 天。成年蜜蜂死亡率的增加对蜂群生存的影响比蜜蜂幼虫死亡率或产蛋率降低的影响要大得多。重要的是，强制死亡率的季节性时间影响了群体水平的影响程度。与 LD50 一致，我们提出了一个新的“致命压力”指数：LIS50，它表明导致 50% 群体死亡率的个体压力水平。该（或任何 LISx）是一个比较指数，用于探索模型模拟中群体水平上不同压力源的影响。虽然群体失败不是可接受的保护目标，但该指数可用于为未来监管保护目标的设定提供信息。
To simulate effects of pesticides on different honeybee (Apis mellifera L.) life stages, we used the BEEHAVE model to explore how increased mortalities of larvae, in-hive workers, and foragers, as well as reduced egg-laying rate, could impact colony dynamics over multiple years. Stresses were applied for 30 days, both as multiples of the modeled control mortality and as set percentage daily mortalities to assess the sensitivity of the modeled colony both to small fluctuations in mortality and periods of low to very high daily mortality. These stresses simulate stylized exposure of the different life stages to nectar and pollen contaminated with pesticide for 30 days. Increasing adult bee mortality had a much greater impact on colony survival than mortality of bee larvae or reduction in egg laying rate. Importantly, the seasonal timing of the imposed mortality affected the magnitude of the impact at colony level. In line with the LD50, we propose a new index of “lethal imposed stress”: the LIS50 which indicates the level of stress on individuals that results in 50% colony mortality. This (or any LISx) is a comparative index for exploring the effects of different stressors at colony level in model simulations. While colony failure is not an acceptable protection goal, this index could be used to inform the setting of future regulatory protection goals.