As COVID-19 cases, deaths and fatality rates surge in Italy, underlying causes require investigation
As COVID-19 cases, deaths and fatality rates surge in Italy, underlying causes require investigation
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DOI：
10.3855/jidc.12734
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发表时间：
2020-03-01
影响因子：
1.9
通讯作者：
Kelvin, David J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rubino, Salvatore;Kelvin, Nikki;Kelvin, David J.
2020 年 3 月，意大利的 COVID-19 病例死亡人数激增，截至 2020 年 3 月 28 日已超过 10,000 例。这一数字超过了中国 1 月至 3 月记录的死亡人数（3,301 例），尽管确诊病例数相似（意大利为 85,000 例，中国为 80,000 例）。病死率 (CFR) 可能有些不可靠，因为总病例数的估计受到多种因素的限制，包括测试不足以及测试套件和材料（例如测试人员的 NP 拭子和个人防护装备）的限制。 SARSCoV-2 抗体的血清流行率可能有助于更准确地估计病例总数。然而，意大利和中国之间死亡总数差异的差异表明，对人口统计、社会学相互作用、医疗设备（ICU床位和个人防护装备）的可用性、免疫蛋白变异（例如HLA、IFN）、过去对相关冠状病毒的免疫力以及SARS-CoV-2突变等多种因素的调查可能会影响重症COVID-19疾病的生存率和死亡人数。
COVID-19 case fatalities surged during the month of March 2020 in Italy, reaching over 10,000 by 28 March 2020. This number exceeds the number of fatalities in China (3,301) recorded from January to March, even though the number of diagnosed cases was similar (85,000 Italy vs. 80,000 China). Case Fatality Rates (CFR) could be somewhat unreliable because the estimation of total case numbers is limited by several factors, including insufficient testing and limitations in test kits and materials, such as NP swabs and PPE for testers. Sero prevalence of SARSCoV-2 antibodies may help in more accurate estimations of the total number of cases. Nevertheless, the disparity in the differences in the total number of fatalities between Italy and China suggests that investigation into several factors, such as demographics, sociological interactions, availability of medical equipment (ICU beds and PPE), variants in immune proteins (e.g., HLA, IFNs), past immunity to related CoVs, and mutations in SARS-CoV-2, could impact survival of severe COVID-19 illness survival and the number of case fatalities.