District heat network extension to decarbonise building stock: A bottom-up agent-based approach
District heat network extension to decarbonise building stock: A bottom-up agent-based approach
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DOI：
10.1016/j.apenergy.2020.115177
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发表时间：
2020-08
期刊：
影响因子：
11.2
通讯作者：
M. Pagani;Patrick Maire;Wolfgang Korosec;N. Chokani;R. Abhari
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
M. Pagani;Patrick Maire;Wolfgang Korosec;N. Chokani;R. Abhari
一个新的框架，这是由大规模的，基于代理的模型的住宅建筑物和居住者的建筑物，和自下而上的热需求模型，开发来评估与城市的区域供热网络的扩展方案。基于主体的模型考虑了单个建筑物的特征和单个居住者的行为。自下而上的热需求模型考虑了单个建筑物热需求的空间和时间差异。结果表明，通过考虑建筑物居住者的行为，热需求的时间分辨动态被更准确地捕获，并且与先前的方法相比，热需求的定量预测得到改善。新的框架被应用到评估在瑞士的一个中等规模的城市的区域供热网络的扩展，从而可以考虑建筑物连接到扩展网络的可能性。通过考虑预测的热需求的盈利能力和建筑物连接到扩展网络的可能性，与不考虑这些方面的网络扩展相比，基础设施的内部回报率可以增加25%。总的来说，这个新的框架为政策制定者和能源多公用事业公司提供了关于建筑物脱碳的见解和具有成本效益的解决方案。
A novel framework, that is comprised of large-scale, agent-based models of residential buildings and the occupants of the buildings, and a bottom-up heat demand model, is developed to assess scenarios related to the extension of a city’s district heat network. The agent-based models account for the characteristics of the individual buildings and the behaviours of the individual occupants. The bottom-up heat demand model accounts for the spatial and temporal differences in heat demand of individual buildings. It is shown that by accounting for the behaviour of building occupants the time-resolved dynamics of heat demand are more accurately captured and the quantitative prediction of the heat demand is improved compared to prior approaches. The novel framework is applied to assess the extension of the district heat network of a mid-sized city in Switzerland, whereby the likelihood of a building to connecting to the extended network can be considered. By accounting both for the profitability of the predicted heat demand and for the likelihood of a building being connected to the extended network, the internal rate of return of the infrastructure can be increased by 25%, compared to an extension of the network where these aspects are not considered. Overall, this novel framework provides insights and cost-effective solutions for policy makers and energy multi-utilities regarding the decarbonisation of building stock.