Food Security:Climate Change and Industrial Transfer
Food Security:Climate Change and Industrial Transfer
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发表时间：
2011
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通讯作者：
Z. Ying-heng
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作者：
Z. Ying-heng
基于1985 - 2008年中国省级面板数据，实证分析了气候变化对粮食种植规模和单产的作用机制，并分析了产业转移对粮食安全的影响。结果表明：（1）水稻、小麦和玉米产业分别向黑龙江、河南和内蒙古等资源匮乏地区转移; (2)粮食作物与经济作物、种植业与畜牧业、农业与非农业之间的成本效益比较是影响农业转移的主导因素，而气候变化因素仅处于次要地位：（3）基于规模效应、收入效应和反弹效应机制，东北三省、河南和内蒙古的增长潜力优于其他地区;（四）落后地区适应气候变化的生产成本和政治成本通常小于发达地区维持粮食生产的机会成本，发达地区向欠发达地区转移粮食生产应该是可持续的，粮食产地转移过程中不存在个人理性与集体理性的冲突。中国要加大对气象预报、水利设施、抗灾能力、农田重建等方面的投入，摒弃传统的区域平衡观念，在全国范围内优化资源配置，运用国家粮食储备战略应对群体性灾害风险。
Based on the provincial panel data from 1985 to 2008,this paper demonstrates the action mechanism of climate change on grain cultivation scale and per unit yields,and analyzes the impact of industrial transfer on food security.The conclusion shows:(1) rice,wheat and corn industries are respectively transferring to areas in that lack resources like Heilongjiang,Henan and Inner Mongolia,etc.;(2) the dominant factor of transfer lies in the cost-benefit comparison between grain crops and cash crops,crop farming and livestock breeding,agriculture and non-agriculture,while the climate change factor is only in a subsidiary status;(3) based on the mechanism of scale effect,income effect and rebound effect,the three northeastern provinces,Henan and Inner Mongolia have better growth potential than the other regions;(4) the productive and political cost for adapting to climate change in backward regions is usually less than the opportunity cost for maintaining food production in developed regions.Food production transferring from the developed regions to the less developed regions should be sustainable.And there is no conflict between individual rationality and collective rationality in the process of food origin transferring.China should increase investment in weather forecasting,water conservancy facilities,anti-disaster capability,farmland reconstruction and others,abandon the traditional concept of regional balance,optimize resource allocation across the country,and use the national food reserve strategy to counter the risk of mass disaster.