The impact of climate change on labour demand in the plantation sector: the case of tea production in Sri Lanka
The impact of climate change on labour demand in the plantation sector: the case of tea production in Sri Lanka
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DOI：
10.1111/1467-8489.12262
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发表时间：
2018-07-01
影响因子：
3.2
通讯作者：
Hasan, Syezlin
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Gunathilaka, Rajapaksha P. D.;Smart, James C. R.;Hasan, Syezlin
作物转换的机会有限，收获前的时间长，这使得种植部门特别容易受到气候变化的影响。然而，令人惊讶的是，气候变化对种植作物的经济影响很少被分析。利用2002年至2014年期间斯里兰卡35个茶园代表性横截面的独特原始面板数据集，本研究实施了一个茶园利润最大化的结构模型，以估计劳动力需求相对于不同天气因素的弹性。结果表明，西南季风、东北季风和第二次季风间期的劳动力需求与降雨量呈负相关。在第一次季风间期，劳动力需求与降雨量之间存在正相关关系。总体而言，预计到2050年降雨量的变化将使斯里兰卡茶园部门每年的劳动力需求减少约117.5万人日。这可能会产生相当大的社会和福利影响，特别是对占该部门劳动力大多数的印度泰米尔妇女而言。
Limited opportunities for crop switching and lengthy preharvesting periods make the plantation sector particularly vulnerable to climate change. Surprisingly, however, the economic consequences of climate change on plantation crops are seldom analysed. Drawing on a unique primary panel data set from a representative cross section of 35 tea estates in Sri Lanka over the period 2002-2014, this study implements a structural model of estate profit maximisation to estimate the elasticity of labour demand with respect to different components of weather. Results indicate a negative relationship between labour demand and rainfall in the south-west monsoon, the north-east monsoon and the second inter-monsoon. A positive relationship is found between labour demand and rainfall in the first inter-monsoon. Overall, predicted changes in rainfall by 2050 are anticipated to reduce labour demand by approximately 1,175,000 person-days per year across Sri Lanka's tea plantation sector. This is likely to have considerable social and welfare implications, particularly for the Indian Tamil women who comprise the majority of the sector's workforce.