Abundance changes and habitat availability drive species' responses to climate change
Abundance changes and habitat availability drive species' responses to climate change
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DOI：
10.1038/nclimate2086
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发表时间：
2014-02-01
影响因子：
30.7
通讯作者：
Thomas, Chris D.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Mair, Louise;Hill, Jane K.;Thomas, Chris D.
对于为什么不同物种的地理范围在应对气候变暖时会有如此大的变化，人们几乎没有达成共识（1，2）。在这里，我们表明，物种的丰度趋势和栖息地的可用性，英国蝴蝶物种的相对重要性随着时间的推移而变化。从1970年代到1990年代中期，栖息地可用性高的物种扩展得更快，当时丰度普遍稳定，而栖息地可用性的影响仅限于1990年代中期到2009年丰度稳定的物种子集，当时丰度趋势普遍下降。这表明，稳定的（或正的）丰度趋势是范围扩大的先决条件。由于非气候和气候原因，物种的丰度趋势随时间而变化，评估丰度趋势将有助于改善物种对气候变化的反应的预测，并帮助我们了解不同的保护策略对促进其扩张的可能成功。
There is little consensus as to why there is so much variation in the rates at which different species' geographic ranges expand in response to climate warming(1,2). Here we show that the relative importance of species' abundance trends and habitat availability for British butterfly species vary over time. Species with high habitat availability expanded more rapidly from the 1970s to mid-1990s, when abundances were generally stable, whereas habitat availability effects were confined to the subset of species with stable abundances from the mid-1990s to 2009, when abundance trends were generally declining. This suggests that stable (or positive) abundance trends are a prerequisite for range expansion. Given that species' abundance trends vary over time(3) for non-climatic as well as climatic reasons, assessment of abundance trends will help improve predictions of species' responses to climate change, and help us to understand the likely success of different conservation strategies for facilitating their expansions.