The 2030 problem: Caring for aging Baby Boomers
The 2030 problem: Caring for aging Baby Boomers
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DOI：
10.1034/j.1600-0560.2002.56.x
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发表时间：
2002-08-01
影响因子：
3.4
通讯作者：
Snell, EK
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Knickman, JR;Snell, EK
目标。评估随着婴儿潮一代年龄的增长，照顾大量体弱老年人的未来挑战。研究背景。对经济和人口数据的回顾，以及对2030年社会经济和人口模式预测的模拟，形成了对社会需要面对的与照顾老年人相关的挑战的审查的基础。研究设计。通过一系列分析来考虑2030年与养老相关的挑战：(1)制定和分析宏观经济负担的衡量标准；(2)分析和综合关于残疾趋势、长期护理的支付方式、健康老龄化和老龄化文化观点的文献；(3)模拟婴儿潮一代未来的收入和资产模式。2030年老龄化的经济负担应该不会比上世纪60年代抚养大量婴儿潮孩子的经济负担更大。2030年照顾老年人的真正挑战将包括：(1)确保社会发展长期护理的付费和保险制度，比现有制度更有效；(2)利用医学和行为健康的进步，尽可能保持老年人的健康和活力；(3)改变社会组织社区服务的方式，使护理更容易获得；(4)改变对老龄化的文化看法，确保所有年龄的人都融入社区生活的结构。为了满足婴儿潮一代的长期护理需求，社会和公共政策改革必须尽快开始。如果现在就做出必要的改变，而不是在婴儿潮一代真正需要长期护理的时候，满足越来越多老年人的经济和社会服务负担将不是一项艰巨的任务。
Objective. To assess the coming challenges of caring for large numbers of frail elderly as the Baby Boom generation ages.Study Setting. A review of economic and demographic data as well as simulations of projected socioeconomic and demographic patterns in the year 2030 form the basis of a review of the challenges related to caring for seniors that need to be faced by society.Study Design. A series of analyses are used to consider the challenges related to caring for elders in the year 2030: (1) measures of macroeconomic burden are developed and analyzed, (2) the literatures on trends in disability, payment approaches for long-term care, healthy aging, and cultural views of aging are analyzed and synthesized, and (3) simulations of future income and assets patterns of the Baby Boom generation are developed.Principal Findings. The economic burden of aging in 2030 should be no greater than the economic burden associated with raising large numbers of baby boom children in the 1960s. The real challenges of caring for the elderly in 2030 will involve: (1) making sure society develops payment and insurance systems for long-term care that work better than existing ones, (2) taking advantage of advances in medicine and behavioral health to keep the elderly as healthy and active as possible, (3) changing the way society organizes community services so that care is more accessible, and (4) altering the cultural view of aging to make sure all ages are integrated into the fabric of community life.Conclusions. To meet the long-term care needs of Baby Boomers, social and public policy changes must begin soon. Meeting the financial and social service burdens of growing numbers of elders will not be a daunting task if necessary changes are made now rather than when Baby Boomers actually need long-term care.