An Iterative Framework for National Scenario Modelling for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
An Iterative Framework for National Scenario Modelling for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)
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DOI：
10.1002/sd.1662
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发表时间：
2017-09-01
影响因子：
12.5
通讯作者：
Wiedmann, Thomas
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Allen, Cameron;Metternicht, Graciela;Wiedmann, Thomas
最近通过的全球可持续发展目标（SDG）旨在促进可持续发展的实施。它们的成败在很大程度上取决于国家的执行情况。然而，可持续发展目标代表了一个广泛、综合和复杂的议程，对各国来说实施起来将非常具有挑战性。在过去十年中，情景分析已成为一种特别适合于可持续发展的方法，并在国家发展规划实践中迅速推广。它将成为各国政府制定国家可持续发展目标战略的宝贵工具。然而，尽管设想模型的应用有所增加，但在国家发展规划中使用设想模型的指导有限。通过对最近的最佳实践文献以及22个当代情景建模案例研究进行回顾，本文总结了经验教训，并提出了一个支持国家可持续发展目标规划的事前情景建模迭代框架。版权所有（c）2017 John Wiley & Sons，Ltd和ERP环境
The recently adopted global Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are intended to catalyse implementation of sustainable development. Their success or failure will rely heavily upon national implementation. However, the SDGs represent a broad, integrated and complex agenda that will be very challenging for countries to implement. Over the past decade, scenario analysis has emerged as a method that is particularly well suited to sustainable development and has seen a rapid expansion in national development planning practice. It will be an invaluable tool for governments in formulating their national SDG strategies. However, despite its increased application, there is limited guidance available on the use of scenario modelling in national development planning. By undertaking a review of the recent best practice literature as well as 22 contemporary scenario modelling case studies, this paper draws out lessons learned and proposes an iterative framework for ex ante scenario modelling to support national SDG planning. Copyright (c) 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment