Assessing Seasonal Risks for the Introduction and Mosquito-borne Spread of Zika Virus in Europe.
Assessing Seasonal Risks for the Introduction and Mosquito-borne Spread of Zika Virus in Europe.
复制标题
DOI：
10.1016/j.ebiom.2016.06.009
复制
发表时间：
2016-07
期刊：
影响因子：
11.1
通讯作者：
Khan K
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Rocklöv J;Quam MB;Sudre B;German M;Kraemer MUG;Brady O;Bogoch II;Liu-Helmersson J;Wilder-Smith A;Semenza JC;Ong M;Aaslav KK;Khan K
寨卡病毒在美洲的爆发性流行正在扩大这种新兴病原体向世界上以前未受影响的地区的传播，包括欧洲，当地人口在免疫方面是幼稚的。随着北方夏季的临近，欧洲的伊蚊可能会找到合适的气候条件，从病毒血症的旅行者那里获得寨卡病毒，并随后将其传播给当地人群。虽然白纹伊蚊已被证明是在欧洲传播登革热和基孔肯雅病毒的媒介，但越来越多的实验和生态证据表明它也可能胜任寨卡病毒（Chouin-Mesiciro et al. 2016; Grard等人，2014; Li等人，2012年; Wong等人，2013年）。在这里，我们分析并叠加了从美洲受寨卡影响地区抵达欧洲城市的航空旅行者的月流量，以及在欧洲伊蚊种群居住地区（葡萄牙马德拉的埃及伊蚊和葡萄牙的埃及伊蚊）对寨卡病毒基本繁殖数量的预测月度估计。欧洲大陆的白纹伊蚊），以及生活在可能通过蚊子传播寨卡病毒的地区的人群。我们强调了寨卡病毒在欧洲传入和可能传播的风险的特定地理区域和时间，以告知人类疾病监测，病媒监测和控制以及公共教育资源的有效利用。一个经过验证的气候模型表明蚊子-在南欧部分地区，7月和8月传播寨卡病毒的风险达到峰值。这项分析假设欧洲和拉丁美洲的伊蚊媒介具有类似的传播寨卡病毒的能力。来自美洲地区的航空旅行高峰与欧洲伊蚊媒介传播寨卡病毒的预测高峰相一致。随着北方夏季的到来，寨卡病毒在美洲以外地区的流行风险将增加。在欧洲，如果旅行者从世界其他地区引入寨卡病毒，埃及伊蚊和白纹伊蚊的种群可能能够在当地传播寨卡病毒。在这里，我们校准了寨卡病毒在欧洲传播的媒介能力模型，我们将其与从美洲寨卡疫区抵达欧洲的航空旅客重叠。我们强调了寨卡病毒传入和潜在本土传播的特定地理区域和风险时间，以告知欧洲疾病监测和控制活动。
The explosive Zika virus epidemic in the Americas is amplifying spread of this emerging pathogen into previously unaffected regions of the world, including Europe, where local populations are immunologically naïve. As summertime approaches in the northern hemisphere, Aedes mosquitoes in Europe may find suitable climatic conditions to acquire and subsequently transmit Zika virus from viremic travellers to local populations. While Aedes albopictus has proven to be a vector for the transmission of dengue and chikungunya viruses in Europe there is growing experimental and ecological evidence to suggest that it may also be competent for Zika virus(Chouin-Carneiro et al., 2016; Grard et al., 2014; Li et al., 2012; Wong et al., 2013). Here we analyze and overlay the monthly flows of airline travellers arriving into European cities from Zika affected areas across the Americas, the predicted monthly estimates of the basic reproduction number of Zika virus in areas where Aedes mosquito populations reside in Europe (Aedes aegypti in Madeira, Portugal and Ae. albopictus in continental Europe), and human populations living within areas where mosquito-borne transmission of Zika virus may be possible. We highlight specific geographic areas and timing of risk for Zika virus introduction and possible spread within Europe to inform the efficient use of human disease surveillance, vector surveillance and control, and public education resources. A validated climate model suggests mosquito-borne Zika transmission risk peaks in July and August in parts of Southern Europe This analysis assumes European and Latin American Aedes vectors have similar competence to transmit Zika virus Air travel peak from regions of the Americas aligns with peak predicted capacity of European Aedes vectors to transmit Zika Findings could help health officials identify where and when risk for Zika importation and local transmission is heightened The imminent arrival of summer in the northern hemisphere brings an elevated risk of Zika virus epidemics outside of the Americas. In Europe, established populations of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus mosquitoes might be capable of transmitting Zika virus locally, if travellers introduce the virus from other areas of the world. Here we calibrate a model of vectorial capacity for Zika virus transmission in Europe, which we overlay with arriving air travellers into Europe from Zika affected areas in the Americas. We highlight specific geographic areas and timing of risk for Zika virus introduction and potential autochthonous transmission to inform European disease surveillance and control activities.