Local and Aggregate Fiscal Policy Multipliers
Local and Aggregate Fiscal Policy Multipliers
复制标题
地方和总体财政政策乘数
DOI：
10.20955/wp.2016.004
复制
发表时间：
2016
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Guerrero Rodrigo
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Bill Dupor;Guerrero Rodrigo
在本文中，我们估计了第二次世界大战以来国防开支对美国宏观经济的影响。首先，我们构建了一个新的面板数据集的国家级联邦国防合同。其次，我们总结了各州的观察结果，并使用由此产生的时间序列，通过工具变量估计国防支出对国民收入和就业的总体影响。第三，我们使用州一级的数据来估计地方乘数，这些数据衡量了各州国防开支的相对差异对经济活动的相对影响。比较总乘数和地方乘数的估计，我们发现，这两个提供了类似的结果，提供了一个案例，在这种情况下，地方乘数估计可能是财政政策的总效应的可靠指标。我们还估计溢出使用州际商品流量数据，并找到一些证据，小的正溢出，这解释了估计的本地和总乘数之间的差异（小）的一部分。在各种规格中，我们估计收入和就业乘数在0到0.5之间。我们通过分析朝鲜战争事件对估计的影响，使这一结果与中村和Steinsson（2014）发现的乘数大于1的结果一致。
In this paper, we estimate the effect of defense spending on the U.S. macroeconomy since World War II. First, we construct a new panel dataset of state-level federal defense contracts. Second, we sum observations across states and, using the resulting time series, estimate the aggregate effect of defense spending on national income and employment via instrumental variables. Third, we estimate local multipliers using the state-level data, which measures the relative effect on economic activity due to relative differences in defense spending across states. Comparing the aggregate and local multiplier estimates, we find that the two deliver similar results, providing a case in which local multiplier estimates may be reliable indicators of the aggregate effects of fiscal policy. We also estimate spillovers using interstate commodity flow data and find some evidence of small positive spillovers, which explain part of the (small) difference between the estimated local and aggregate multipliers. Across a wide range of specifications, we estimate income and employment multipliers between zero and 0.5. We reconcile this result with the greater-than-one multipliers found in Nakamura and Steinsson (2014) by analyzing the impact of the Korean War episode in the estimation.