Exchange Rate Uncertainty and R&D Investment: Evidence from Japanese Firms
Exchange Rate Uncertainty and R&D Investment: Evidence from Japanese Firms
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汇率不确定性和R
DOI：
10.1111/deve.12125
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发表时间：
2017
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
Shoko Haneda
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Keiko Ito;Shoko Haneda
日元是发达国家货币中波动性最大的货币之一。在本文中，我们利用 1994 年至 2011 年期间日本制造企业的企业层面面板数据，研究了实际有效汇率 (REER) 的不确定性如何影响企业的研发 (R&D) 投资。我们的结果表明，更多地受到实际有效汇率不确定性影响的企业对需求条件变化的反应较差。不确定性使企业在投资时更加谨慎，因为高度的不确定性增加了犯下代价高昂的错误的机会。因此，我们的发现提供了不确定性的谨慎效应的证据。谨慎效应还增加了研发的持久性，这意味着即使企业面临有利的需求条件，研发投资也不会增加太多。减少实际有效汇率的不确定性对于刺激研发投资非常重要，特别是对于更容易受到国际竞争和实际有效汇率不确定性影响的企业而言。
The Japanese yen is one of the most volatile among developed country currencies. In this paper, we investigate how real effective exchange rate (REER) uncertainty affects firms’ research and development (R&D) investment, using firm-level panel data for Japanese manufacturing firms for the period 1994–2011. Our results show that firms that are more exposed to REER uncertainty are less responsive to changes in demand conditions. Uncertainty makes firms more cautious when investing, since high uncertainty increases the chances of making a costly mistake. Our finding thus provides evidence of the caution effect of uncertainty. The caution effect also increases the persistence of R&D, implying that R&D investment does not increase much even if firms face favorable demand conditions. Reducing REER uncertainty is important to stimulate R&D investment, especially for firms that are more exposed to international competition and REER uncertainty.