A modelling approach for estimating the frequency of sea level extremes and the impact of climate change in southeast Australia
A modelling approach for estimating the frequency of sea level extremes and the impact of climate change in southeast Australia
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DOI：
10.1007/s11069-009-9383-2
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发表时间：
2009-10-01
期刊：
影响因子：
3.7
通讯作者：
O'Grady, J. G.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
McInnes, K. L.;Macadam, I.;O'Grady, J. G.
一个有效的方法来评估风暴潮返回水平沿着澳大利亚东南海岸线在目前和未来的气候条件下。目前气候的风暴潮高度概率估计使用流体动力学模型模拟最近验潮记录中确定的浪涌。然后使用联合概率方法计算潮汐。用这种方法得到的风暴潮高度返回水平与直接分析验潮站记录得到的结果相似。通过添加各种平均海平面上升的估计值并使用修改的风数据强制模型来探索气候变化对极端海平面的影响。结果表明，气候变化有可能减少平均重现间隔目前的气候1在100年风暴潮水平沿着大部分的北方巴斯海峡海岸到2070年1至2年。
An efficient approach for evaluating storm tide return levels along the southeastern coastline of Australia under present and future climate conditions is described. Storm surge height probabilities for the present climate are estimated using hydrodynamic model simulations of surges identified in recent tide gauge records. Tides are then accounted for using a joint probability method. Storm tide height return levels obtained in this way are similar to those obtained from the direct analysis of tide gauge records. The impact of climate change on extreme sea levels is explored by adding a variety of estimates of mean sea level rise and by forcing the model with modified wind data. It is shown that climate change has the potential to reduce average recurrence intervals of present climate 1 in 100 year storm tide levels along much of the northern Bass Strait coast to between 1 and 2 years by the year 2070.