Multiple Equilibria and Persistence in Aggregate Fluctuations
Multiple Equilibria and Persistence in Aggregate Fluctuations
复制标题
多重均衡与总体波动的持续性
DOI：
10.3386/w3629
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发表时间：
1991
期刊：
影响因子：
--
通讯作者：
S. Durlauf
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
S. Durlauf
本文探讨了不完全市场和强互补性对总体活动时间序列特性的影响。我们考虑一个由大量行业组成的经济体，这些行业的生产函数都是非凸的，并且表现出局部的技术互补性。每个行业在 t 时的生产率是由技术相似行业在 t - 1 时的生产决策决定的。不存在协调生产决策的市场。这一特征意味着该模型的总产出动态与相关的阿罗-德布鲁经济预测的有很大不同。首先，总体活动中存在多重随机均衡。这些均衡通过输出均值和方差的差异来区分。其次，产出变动是持续的，因为总体生产率冲击通过使经济跨越均衡而无限期地影响实际活动。因此，该模型可以表现出繁荣和萧条时期。
This paper explores the impact of incomplete markets and strong complementarities on the time series properties of aggregate activity. We consider an economy which consists of a large number of industries whose production functions both are nonconvex and exhibit localized technological complementarities. The productivity of each industry at t is determined by the production decisions of technologically similar industries at t - 1. No markets exist to coordinate production decisions. This feature implies that aggregate output dynamics for the model are quite different from those predicted by the associated Arrow-Debreu economy. First, multiple stochastic equilibria exist in aggregate activity. These equilibria are distinguished by differences in the mean and the variance of output. Second, output movements are persistent as aggregate productivity shocks indefinitely affect real activity by shifting the economy across equilibria. As a result, the model can exhibit periods of boom and depression.