Duration Dependence and Labor Market Conditions: Evidence from a Field Experiment
Duration Dependence and Labor Market Conditions: Evidence from a Field Experiment
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DOI：
10.1093/qje/qjt015
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发表时间：
2013-08-01
影响因子：
13.7
通讯作者：
Notowidigdo, Matthew J.
中科院分区：
文献类型：
--
作者：
Kroft, Kory;Lange, Fabian;Notowidigdo, Matthew J.
本文通过向美国100个城市的真实的招聘信息发送虚构的简历，研究了雇主行为在产生“负持续时间依赖”（长期失业的不利影响）中的作用。我们的研究结果表明，收到回拨面试的可能性显着降低与工人的失业法术的长度，这种下降的大部分发生在前八个月。我们探讨了这种影响如何随着当地劳动力市场条件的变化而变化，并发现当当地劳动力市场更紧张时，持续时间依赖性更强。这一结果是一致的预测的一个广泛的类别的筛选模型，雇主使用的失业拼写长度作为一个信号的未观察到的生产力，并认识到，这个信号是在疲软的劳动力市场信息较少。JEL Code：J64.
This article studies the role of employer behavior in generating "negative duration dependence"-the adverse effect of a longer unemployment spell-by sending fictitious resumes to real job postings in 100 U.S. cities. Our results indicate that the likelihood of receiving a callback for an interview significantly decreases with the length of a worker's unemployment spell, with the majority of this decline occurring during the first eight months. We explore how this effect varies with local labor market conditions and find that duration dependence is stronger when the local labor market is tighter. This result is consistent with the prediction of a broad class of screening models in which employers use the unemployment spell length as a signal of unobserved productivity and recognize that this signal is less informative in weak labor markets. JEL Code: J64.