Can the COVID-19 Epidemic Be Controlled on the Basis of Daily Test Reports?
Can the COVID-19 Epidemic Be Controlled on the Basis of Daily Test Reports?
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DOI：
10.1109/lcsys.2020.3009912
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发表时间：
2021-07-01
影响因子：
3
通讯作者：
Casella, Francesco
中科院分区：
文献类型：
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作者：
Casella, Francesco
这封信研究了当局是否可以以及在多大程度上根据每日报告的拭子检测结果、活跃病例和总病例采取公共卫生措施来控制COVID-19流行病。推导了一个适当简化的过程模型来支持可控性分析，突出了存在非常显著的时间延迟；使用来自几次爆发的数据验证了该模型。分析表明，如果抑制策略足够强大并尽早实施，则可以有效。它还显示了由于反馈回路中的延迟、不稳定动态和不确定性的组合，缓解策略如何失败；基于线性控制的极限理论，给出了反馈控制可行的近似条件。
This letter studies if and to which extent COVID-19 epidemics can be controlled by authorities taking decisions on public health measures on the basis of daily reports of swab test results, active cases and total cases. A suitably simplified process model is derived to support the controllability analysis, highlighting the presence of very significant time delay; the model is validated with data from several outbreaks. The analysis shows that suppression strategies can be effective if strong enough and enacted early on. It also shows how mitigation strategies can fail because of the combination of delay, unstable dynamics, and uncertainty in the feedback loop; approximate conditions based on the theory of limitation of linear control are given for feedback control to be feasible.